***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.10.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.10.2012.-14.10.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 9999.0 0.0 18.4 -0.2 45.4 47.1 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 20.3 19.7 18.3 -0.3 46.5 45.7 18.8 19.8 20.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 20.4 19.9 18.8 0.1 49.8 50.9 18.6 20.0 20.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 12.6 12.4 16.7 0.4 54.1 54.7 11.2 12.1 13.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 20.2 19.8 17.6 0.3 49.6 53.5 18.5 19.8 20.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 19.8 19.3 15.7 -0.1 48.4 49.2 17.9 19.3 21.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 19.7 19.1 17.9 -0.6 42.3 42.5 18.7 19.3 20.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 10.7 10.3 16.2 0.2 50.0 53.3 9.1 10.3 11.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 20.2 19.8 18.5 0.4 50.7 54.8 18.5 19.8 21.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 20.2 19.8 17.1 0.3 51.1 54.3 18.6 19.8 20.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 20.3 19.9 17.6 0.4 51.1 54.3 19.0 19.8 21.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 83 17 100 20.1 19.9 17.0 0.3 50.9 53.8 18.0 19.8 20.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 82 18 100 20.7 20.3 17.1 0.2 48.5 51.8 18.8 20.4 21.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 56 44 0 100 18.1 20.1 17.9 0.1 50.6 51.4 18.6 20.1 21.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 19.4 20.2 18.5 0.8 64.3 60.2 17.1 18.9 20.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 82 18 100 21.0 20.6 17.4 0.3 50.8 53.6 19.6 20.6 21.4 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 17.1 18.6 17.4 -0.9 38.4 39.3 18.5 18.8 20.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 19.1 18.4 16.2 0.0 48.4 51.4 17.4 18.7 19.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 20.1 19.5 18.6 0.0 50.0 49.8 18.7 19.5 20.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 16.4 16.0 14.4 -0.1 47.7 51.0 14.5 16.1 17.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 20.2 19.5 18.7 0.0 46.1 50.3 18.3 19.7 20.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 17.8 19.1 17.7 -0.6 41.2 42.5 18.9 19.5 21.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 20.5 20.2 18.9 0.4 53.3 54.3 18.8 20.0 20.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 20.5 19.9 17.8 0.1 49.7 50.9 18.6 19.9 20.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 19.4 19.0 17.3 -0.3 44.0 46.9 18.4 19.1 20.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 20.4 19.6 16.0 -0.3 42.0 46.8 19.4 19.8 20.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 19.7 18.9 17.7 -0.5 43.0 44.4 18.6 19.2 20.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 81 19 100 19.5 20.1 17.7 0.6 59.4 57.4 17.2 19.0 20.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 15.6 14.9 15.5 -0.1 48.0 50.3 13.6 15.2 16.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 19.8 19.2 18.6 -0.2 47.2 47.7 18.5 19.3 20.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------