***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.10.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.10.2012.-04.11.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 39 61 100 9999.0 0.0 8.8 0.7 64.9 63.2 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 6.2 6.6 8.3 0.5 61.8 60.5 4.8 5.9 6.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 38 62 100 8.6 8.5 8.6 0.7 65.8 64.7 7.4 7.9 8.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 37 63 100 4.1 3.7 6.5 0.6 64.0 63.9 2.5 3.2 3.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 33 67 100 5.8 5.9 6.8 0.7 65.8 65.1 4.3 4.8 5.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 39 61 100 5.0 4.8 5.2 0.8 66.1 65.7 3.8 4.5 4.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 41 59 100 6.7 6.3 8.3 0.5 62.8 61.3 5.0 5.8 6.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 39 61 100 1.5 1.6 5.6 0.8 65.6 65.9 0.0 1.0 1.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 29 71 100 6.9 6.8 7.4 0.8 68.1 67.1 5.3 6.1 6.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 36 64 100 6.4 6.3 6.1 0.8 66.3 65.9 5.1 5.6 6.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 33 67 100 6.0 5.9 6.5 0.8 68.4 66.6 4.6 5.3 5.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 35 65 100 5.0 5.1 6.2 0.9 68.5 67.5 3.9 4.5 5.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 33 67 100 5.5 5.7 5.8 0.9 69.1 67.1 4.1 4.6 5.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 37 63 100 6.9 6.8 7.3 0.7 67.4 65.4 6.0 6.3 6.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 33 67 100 6.5 6.6 7.3 0.8 69.9 68.1 5.4 5.6 6.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 29 71 100 6.8 6.8 6.2 0.8 69.7 67.1 5.7 6.0 6.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 6.1 6.4 7.9 0.3 58.4 58.5 5.2 5.7 6.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 40 60 100 5.3 5.1 5.5 0.7 65.2 64.4 4.1 4.8 5.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 42 58 100 6.5 6.7 8.4 0.6 64.3 62.5 4.9 5.8 6.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 1.7 1.8 4.1 0.6 62.0 61.8 0.8 1.5 1.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 33 67 100 6.4 6.6 8.3 0.8 67.1 65.6 4.8 5.5 6.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 5.4 5.8 7.9 0.4 61.5 60.0 4.4 5.1 5.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 36 64 100 6.3 6.6 8.4 0.8 69.8 66.0 4.7 5.6 6.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 37 63 100 6.0 5.9 7.2 0.8 66.7 65.5 4.9 5.7 5.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 39 61 100 6.8 6.7 7.4 0.6 64.1 62.7 5.4 5.8 6.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 36 64 100 5.8 5.7 5.9 0.8 68.0 66.1 4.7 5.5 5.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 38 62 100 6.9 6.9 8.1 0.6 64.3 62.8 5.1 5.7 6.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 31 69 100 5.0 4.9 6.9 0.8 68.9 66.8 3.8 4.4 4.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 38 62 100 4.8 4.8 5.0 0.7 66.1 64.3 3.1 4.1 4.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 42 58 100 6.7 6.8 8.6 0.6 64.6 62.3 5.2 6.2 6.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------