***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.10.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.10.2012.-28.10.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 34 66 100 9999.0 0.0 8.4 0.8 60.9 59.4 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 59 41 0 100 2.5 6.6 7.8 0.6 60.9 58.0 3.2 5.6 7.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 33 67 100 9.0 8.3 8.0 0.8 61.3 59.4 5.4 6.9 9.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 0.3 2.0 5.9 0.6 57.1 57.4 0.4 1.9 3.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 2.4 5.3 6.1 0.6 57.8 58.0 2.9 4.2 5.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 4.2 4.3 4.5 0.7 56.1 58.9 2.7 3.6 5.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 61 39 0 100 2.5 6.2 7.8 0.6 61.7 57.5 2.8 5.3 6.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 -1.5 1.0 4.9 0.8 58.6 59.0 -1.7 0.1 1.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 33 67 100 7.7 6.2 6.7 0.7 58.8 59.0 3.1 5.7 7.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 3.2 5.9 5.4 0.7 58.4 58.6 3.3 4.4 6.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 5.5 5.4 5.8 0.7 58.7 58.5 3.4 5.1 5.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 4.7 5.1 5.5 0.8 58.2 59.1 2.2 4.1 5.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 5.4 5.8 5.0 0.7 60.0 58.4 3.1 5.0 6.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 27 73 100 7.8 6.3 6.7 0.8 65.1 59.8 4.0 5.6 6.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 5.3 5.6 6.4 0.7 61.4 58.9 4.1 4.8 5.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 6.2 6.2 5.3 0.7 58.5 58.3 4.4 5.6 7.0 30 Nis 06700G01 61 39 0 100 2.9 6.0 7.4 0.5 56.6 56.6 3.1 5.3 6.6 30 Palic 37000G16 58 42 0 100 1.9 4.5 4.9 0.7 60.1 58.4 2.5 3.7 5.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 58 42 0 100 2.9 6.2 7.9 0.7 62.0 58.7 2.8 5.1 6.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 54 46 0 100 -0.5 2.0 3.7 0.7 57.8 58.1 -1.0 1.1 2.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 33 67 100 7.2 6.1 7.6 0.8 59.2 59.0 2.5 5.6 6.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 58 42 0 100 2.7 5.6 7.4 0.5 56.8 57.0 2.1 4.9 6.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 33 67 100 6.8 6.5 7.8 0.8 64.0 59.6 2.8 5.0 6.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 30 70 100 6.6 6.0 6.5 0.8 62.3 59.4 3.0 4.3 6.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 3.8 6.7 6.8 0.7 60.3 58.4 3.6 5.7 7.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 5.4 6.0 5.3 0.9 61.8 60.6 3.3 4.9 6.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 3.0 6.3 7.6 0.7 60.7 58.9 3.3 5.7 7.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 4.1 4.2 6.0 0.6 58.4 58.0 2.4 3.6 4.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 32 68 100 5.1 4.7 4.5 0.7 59.1 58.8 1.0 2.1 5.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 33 67 100 7.4 7.2 8.1 0.7 61.7 58.6 3.1 5.4 7.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------