***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.10.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.10.2012.-14.10.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 9999.0 0.0 9.5 -1.0 35.6 36.1 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 63 37 0 100 6.4 7.1 9.0 -1.2 30.3 33.2 7.2 7.6 8.8 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 9.2 9.5 9.7 -0.7 38.7 39.7 9.2 10.3 10.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 5.8 5.4 7.7 -0.5 40.5 42.8 5.0 5.5 6.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 7.6 7.0 8.2 -0.3 43.4 45.3 6.4 7.3 8.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 7.0 6.2 6.3 -0.3 44.4 44.5 5.4 6.6 7.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 61 39 0 100 6.9 7.2 9.2 -1.0 33.0 35.4 7.2 7.8 9.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 1.5 2.5 6.6 -0.3 43.8 44.9 1.7 2.6 3.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 8.7 8.2 8.8 -0.1 45.9 47.7 7.3 8.5 9.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 8.2 7.8 7.3 -0.3 43.6 45.0 7.5 8.0 8.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 7.9 7.4 7.8 -0.3 42.7 44.8 6.5 7.6 8.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 7.0 6.3 7.2 -0.3 44.3 46.0 5.7 6.7 7.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 7.7 7.4 7.2 -0.2 45.9 47.1 5.7 7.4 8.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 59 41 0 100 7.1 7.9 8.6 -0.5 37.9 42.2 7.6 8.5 9.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 8.5 8.2 9.2 -0.1 45.9 47.9 7.5 8.2 9.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 8.6 8.1 7.6 -0.2 45.4 46.8 7.6 8.2 9.0 30 Nis 06700G01 63 37 0 100 7.0 7.3 8.7 -1.3 29.8 32.8 7.4 7.7 9.3 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 6.0 6.7 6.5 -0.5 40.8 42.2 6.4 6.9 8.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 59 41 0 100 7.0 7.1 9.3 -1.0 33.3 36.1 7.1 7.8 8.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 3.6 2.3 4.7 -0.6 37.9 40.7 2.0 3.0 4.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 7.9 6.8 9.5 -0.5 41.8 43.0 6.2 7.5 8.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 63 37 0 100 6.2 6.3 9.1 -1.0 31.0 34.9 6.4 7.1 8.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 55 45 0 100 6.8 7.4 9.7 -0.4 39.5 42.3 7.1 7.8 8.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 6.3 7.0 8.4 -0.5 39.9 42.8 6.8 7.3 8.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 8.3 7.2 8.7 -0.9 35.8 37.0 6.9 7.8 9.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 7.7 7.1 6.7 -0.5 41.8 42.6 6.3 7.4 8.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 8.4 6.8 8.9 -1.0 35.6 35.9 6.8 7.6 9.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 7.1 6.5 8.4 -0.2 46.3 47.5 5.6 6.7 7.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 6.4 6.0 6.0 -0.4 41.2 42.9 5.5 6.1 6.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 59 41 0 100 6.9 7.3 9.5 -1.0 33.3 35.7 7.3 7.7 9.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------