***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.10.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.10.2019.-03.11.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 55 45 0 100 20.4 32.7 48.5 93.4 51.8 46.7 14.7 32.4 45.3 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 36.7 28.3 44.2 93.4 50.0 47.0 17.0 28.3 42.9 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 22.4 38.9 48.7 95.0 51.4 47.7 24.4 36.9 55.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 47.9 37.0 56.0 88.7 47.9 44.6 25.6 37.8 56.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 41.9 36.3 52.8 94.0 51.3 47.5 29.3 36.0 43.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 41.3 39.2 53.6 96.8 52.9 48.0 16.7 35.4 50.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 30.9 25.1 45.1 95.9 52.4 48.3 19.3 24.9 40.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 34.1 52.6 56.1 92.7 51.0 47.0 38.6 49.0 67.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 42.0 36.4 53.4 95.4 50.4 48.4 32.0 36.2 42.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 29.7 43.7 56.5 95.0 50.8 47.9 34.0 42.5 50.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 38.6 33.7 52.9 95.5 51.9 48.1 26.6 32.5 44.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 40.3 37.6 52.2 94.3 52.3 47.7 29.0 37.1 43.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 23.5 38.5 52.1 90.5 47.8 45.0 23.4 40.4 47.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 67.9 63.1 60.8 100.8 54.6 50.8 36.1 61.0 76.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 34.8 28.5 56.6 90.1 49.2 45.3 11.5 28.5 50.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 41.1 37.3 52.6 94.6 50.1 47.2 21.0 37.2 42.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 30.6 27.2 46.3 99.3 54.7 50.1 16.1 25.0 35.1 30 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 30.2 50.2 60.4 99.1 54.2 50.2 35.3 44.6 56.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 23.5 34.0 45.0 93.3 49.6 47.2 17.4 34.0 62.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 55.0 50.2 67.1 92.1 50.7 46.7 33.9 50.0 62.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 43.7 36.8 51.4 95.5 50.9 48.3 26.4 36.6 46.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 40.3 36.7 49.1 100.4 54.3 51.1 22.5 34.0 49.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 22.4 36.6 47.5 94.6 50.5 47.9 22.1 36.6 58.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 59.1 49.9 58.3 102.5 56.2 51.7 31.4 46.8 55.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 41.7 29.9 53.7 93.3 51.2 47.2 19.5 29.8 43.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 43.0 38.1 56.6 95.4 51.7 46.9 31.9 37.3 48.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 18.1 30.3 51.0 95.0 52.9 47.8 17.4 27.3 47.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 34.6 30.9 53.7 89.6 48.6 44.6 17.2 31.3 39.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 46.0 66.3 63.0 98.6 53.5 50.2 41.9 63.5 89.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 17.7 26.8 44.9 92.1 50.0 46.2 15.0 26.9 48.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------