***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.10.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.10.2019.-03.11.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 3.0 8.0 14.2 95.1 59.8 47.6 0.3 6.2 11.9 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 4.2 6.4 12.2 93.1 57.8 47.4 0.8 2.5 7.6 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 1.5 7.3 14.2 96.6 59.4 47.7 0.3 3.2 11.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 61 39 0 100 1.8 6.2 14.3 86.6 58.0 45.1 1.9 4.3 9.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 57 43 0 100 1.7 8.1 13.7 89.2 59.4 45.5 0.4 4.0 9.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 3.7 2.7 11.9 83.6 55.5 44.6 0.3 2.6 3.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 5.6 5.6 12.6 97.5 60.4 49.4 0.6 3.9 6.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 7.2 7.7 14.3 90.8 60.2 47.8 1.0 5.3 8.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 58 42 0 100 0.9 9.5 14.3 90.8 61.2 46.7 0.1 2.2 10.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 2.2 5.9 14.5 89.2 60.3 47.2 0.7 5.1 7.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 1.2 5.7 13.1 90.5 58.3 46.7 0.3 2.7 7.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 5.6 4.9 13.1 92.8 58.0 48.0 0.5 3.3 6.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 5.1 5.2 13.3 91.0 56.1 46.2 0.4 3.3 7.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 4.4 12.0 16.0 96.6 59.0 47.5 1.1 8.9 15.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 58 42 0 100 0.7 2.1 14.3 84.2 60.4 45.6 0.2 1.5 2.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 0.9 3.5 13.1 92.4 57.2 46.4 0.3 1.9 4.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 5.0 4.1 12.1 94.9 59.0 48.6 0.5 2.8 7.7 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 2.2 8.9 15.8 94.4 59.8 48.6 1.7 4.2 9.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 7.0 6.0 12.3 92.3 57.0 46.7 0.7 3.9 7.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 7.2 5.6 18.4 93.2 60.9 49.2 0.9 3.6 7.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 58 42 0 100 1.8 9.2 14.8 96.6 62.8 47.8 0.4 4.2 9.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 56 44 0 100 1.4 4.2 12.5 94.2 58.0 47.9 0.7 3.2 8.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 1.6 5.2 12.7 93.1 56.4 46.6 1.2 3.3 7.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 3.0 11.8 15.9 99.6 59.8 48.3 1.1 6.3 13.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 59 41 0 100 1.5 5.9 15.1 92.5 58.9 46.5 1.1 3.7 6.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 3.8 4.0 14.6 97.6 60.4 49.4 0.4 2.5 5.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 2.1 6.6 14.5 94.7 59.5 47.8 0.2 4.4 9.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 59 41 0 100 1.2 3.9 13.5 86.3 58.4 45.0 0.2 2.9 4.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 4.1 14.0 16.6 95.9 59.9 48.9 2.5 8.4 15.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 4.6 4.6 12.8 93.5 57.7 47.5 1.0 2.9 5.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------