***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.10.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.10.2019.-27.10.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 8.7 12.2 13.7 106.1 65.4 53.2 2.5 4.9 12.4 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 6.6 9.6 12.2 103.0 64.5 52.8 0.5 4.9 9.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 9.6 14.6 14.0 113.6 68.5 55.2 2.8 6.2 13.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 10.7 17.3 16.8 117.9 70.6 56.0 2.1 8.0 15.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 9.8 15.6 15.5 118.1 69.3 56.1 3.2 7.6 11.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 6.6 10.1 13.7 116.4 66.1 55.8 1.2 4.3 10.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 5.4 8.2 12.1 102.7 65.7 52.5 1.8 4.1 8.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 83 17 100 12.0 16.8 15.0 114.0 65.3 56.9 4.4 9.9 17.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 8.8 10.5 15.8 118.5 69.5 56.6 3.4 7.3 9.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 9.9 12.6 16.3 119.7 68.4 57.0 3.6 8.3 12.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 8.3 12.2 14.8 121.5 68.9 57.0 2.3 5.9 11.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 82 18 100 7.6 7.3 13.5 114.1 64.9 56.0 2.1 6.1 7.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 9.6 9.9 13.2 106.3 62.1 52.0 2.7 6.4 10.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 13.5 20.3 17.0 115.2 65.2 56.4 5.7 10.9 20.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 6.7 13.2 17.4 124.5 73.2 56.7 1.5 4.7 13.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 7.3 11.2 14.3 118.6 66.8 55.3 3.0 4.3 10.9 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 1.1 10.2 12.7 107.2 66.3 52.9 1.1 2.3 10.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 10.0 13.5 17.4 120.7 67.2 56.4 3.3 6.8 12.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 8.8 15.1 12.5 104.3 64.2 53.7 2.0 5.8 15.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 10.5 11.8 18.6 107.5 63.1 54.5 4.1 7.9 12.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 8.6 15.8 15.0 118.6 70.8 56.7 2.7 5.9 15.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 8.0 12.2 13.5 109.8 65.3 55.0 0.8 5.1 12.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 11.8 16.2 13.1 105.7 62.3 54.5 3.5 9.1 20.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 10.7 16.5 16.9 122.7 68.5 57.4 5.0 8.0 15.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 6.6 10.6 15.4 108.2 68.7 54.9 1.4 3.5 8.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 11.5 10.9 13.4 105.0 61.3 53.4 2.7 8.6 12.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 7.0 11.4 13.9 103.5 66.3 53.6 1.0 2.9 11.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 8.7 12.4 16.2 122.1 70.8 55.8 1.7 7.3 10.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 12.3 17.6 17.5 114.6 65.3 55.6 5.8 8.6 18.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 7.1 9.7 12.5 103.1 64.7 52.9 1.2 5.3 10.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------