***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.10.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.10.2019.-20.10.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 7.0 6.9 9.7 85.2 55.0 46.6 2.6 4.8 10.9 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 82 18 100 8.1 8.4 9.6 88.2 58.0 50.9 0.5 7.2 10.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 6.4 8.1 10.5 90.9 60.1 49.3 1.0 3.7 11.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 8.4 7.7 13.2 97.4 62.4 51.6 2.5 5.1 9.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 9.2 12.8 12.3 96.9 62.7 49.5 1.1 6.8 13.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 2.0 12.5 13.6 113.2 67.8 53.1 1.1 4.2 9.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 82 18 100 7.2 8.5 9.7 90.6 60.3 50.9 0.8 5.7 10.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 5.0 15.0 13.4 102.0 62.9 49.4 2.7 10.2 16.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 10.1 10.8 12.0 100.7 63.8 50.8 1.6 7.4 11.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 15.3 16.1 13.5 105.4 64.3 50.7 2.3 12.3 16.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 11.1 13.0 13.1 103.5 64.4 51.7 3.3 8.6 13.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 9.9 10.7 12.7 103.5 63.8 50.9 0.6 8.1 11.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 60 40 0 100 2.9 9.9 11.4 91.5 58.9 45.7 0.7 7.2 12.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 12.9 18.2 15.1 109.3 64.8 52.6 5.6 9.0 19.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 4.5 6.7 14.5 112.0 68.4 54.8 0.7 2.0 6.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 2.8 9.7 12.0 98.8 62.8 50.0 0.9 6.0 12.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 5.9 6.9 10.6 98.1 62.8 52.8 0.5 3.4 8.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 8.9 17.2 14.2 109.5 64.8 51.5 2.4 4.0 17.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 10.4 9.8 10.2 92.0 59.3 51.6 0.7 8.9 12.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 4.2 15.1 15.9 99.4 61.0 49.0 1.0 8.4 21.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 5.5 6.9 11.1 94.8 61.4 51.1 1.3 2.5 11.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 8.4 8.8 11.7 101.7 62.1 52.9 0.3 5.9 11.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 11.0 12.7 11.7 100.2 63.6 52.8 1.3 9.7 13.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 10.4 15.3 13.7 108.7 65.8 52.8 2.2 6.9 15.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 6.1 3.5 11.5 87.8 54.9 46.5 0.8 2.7 13.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 7.9 10.4 14.5 103.6 60.5 51.2 1.8 4.9 11.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 7.7 5.4 10.4 87.8 54.7 46.5 2.9 5.2 10.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 6.2 7.2 12.6 99.8 65.0 51.6 2.2 3.8 7.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 14.9 21.6 15.5 111.6 64.8 52.1 3.7 9.5 22.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 84 16 100 8.1 8.2 9.7 87.7 57.7 50.0 1.2 6.9 11.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------