***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.10.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.10.2019.-13.10.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 83 17 100 5.1 5.2 11.0 85.9 58.8 52.8 0.3 1.4 6.6 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 82 18 100 8.1 11.1 10.2 88.7 61.2 54.7 1.4 5.8 12.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 11.8 8.8 9.9 78.7 57.1 50.0 0.6 8.2 15.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 14.4 11.7 11.7 62.6 51.3 41.7 3.7 10.4 16.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 8.3 5.4 11.3 75.4 55.0 46.7 1.5 4.3 18.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 85 15 100 11.5 14.3 14.5 83.1 56.9 50.0 3.1 8.9 21.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 83 17 100 8.3 13.2 10.6 92.0 61.1 55.1 0.6 6.2 13.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 16.8 13.4 13.4 72.7 49.9 44.5 7.9 13.4 22.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 9.6 10.4 11.3 75.7 55.3 47.9 1.5 6.8 17.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 12.1 9.9 12.4 73.1 51.3 45.3 1.6 9.2 18.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 82 18 100 7.8 6.6 11.9 74.0 53.4 46.3 0.9 4.6 15.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 82 18 100 11.7 10.0 12.9 75.3 52.5 46.2 1.6 9.3 14.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 83 17 100 10.0 10.9 14.2 78.5 56.2 48.7 3.8 5.8 20.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 13.0 15.5 12.7 83.7 57.2 50.5 1.2 7.0 22.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 1.6 3.5 10.3 54.9 51.4 39.7 1.3 3.3 9.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 83 17 100 9.8 9.1 13.1 76.3 53.8 46.8 0.9 6.0 13.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 6.1 10.4 10.9 97.2 62.7 55.8 0.4 3.6 11.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 15.6 12.7 13.0 77.6 52.1 46.1 2.1 11.3 24.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 82 18 100 7.8 8.2 10.0 84.8 59.3 53.5 0.9 4.7 12.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 16.5 11.5 14.2 72.9 49.1 42.7 4.1 12.0 19.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 81 19 100 11.5 10.8 10.4 74.1 53.7 47.9 4.0 8.9 19.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 84 16 100 8.9 10.9 11.4 96.5 60.8 55.9 0.1 6.6 15.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 8.1 8.5 10.0 80.2 56.6 51.6 0.5 4.1 12.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 8.3 7.3 11.7 81.0 56.0 48.8 0.9 3.9 18.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 11.4 13.5 11.7 84.5 58.9 50.0 2.0 8.1 14.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 87 13 100 12.4 11.0 14.1 80.3 53.1 49.1 5.6 10.4 21.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 82 18 100 8.2 9.1 12.1 93.2 62.1 53.9 0.6 3.8 11.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 6.5 3.4 11.4 62.0 50.8 41.5 0.8 2.8 12.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 22.2 19.7 13.3 76.9 51.9 45.2 4.1 17.5 25.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 8.1 10.2 9.9 83.2 60.3 53.2 0.8 5.5 11.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------