***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.10.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.10.2019.-03.11.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 39 61 100 18.1 17.6 17.0 0.8 61.2 60.7 15.9 16.7 18.1 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 17.4 17.1 16.6 0.3 53.9 54.3 16.5 17.0 17.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 17.6 17.6 17.1 0.5 56.6 56.2 16.7 17.2 18.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 39 61 100 12.0 12.2 14.7 1.3 69.3 67.0 9.1 10.9 12.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 17.8 18.0 15.6 0.7 60.5 58.8 16.3 17.4 18.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 32 68 100 18.1 18.2 14.6 1.0 66.4 61.7 15.4 16.9 18.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 17.0 16.8 16.5 0.3 54.0 54.4 15.8 16.6 17.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 7.5 9.3 14.5 0.6 59.0 56.9 7.9 8.9 9.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 16.2 18.3 16.2 0.6 58.0 57.3 16.3 17.5 19.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 15.7 18.1 15.3 0.7 59.7 58.0 16.0 17.1 18.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 16.2 18.7 15.9 0.6 59.7 57.2 16.0 17.5 18.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 15.8 17.9 15.2 0.6 58.9 56.7 15.8 17.1 18.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 16.5 18.4 15.3 0.5 58.1 56.2 16.6 17.8 18.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 18.2 17.8 16.0 0.2 50.5 52.2 16.9 17.7 18.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 45 55 100 17.1 17.4 16.0 1.4 68.6 68.1 15.6 16.3 17.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 18.8 19.1 15.5 0.7 61.6 58.5 16.9 18.4 19.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 16.7 16.4 16.1 0.2 53.4 52.9 16.0 16.4 16.9 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 14.8 17.1 14.9 0.5 56.2 56.4 15.4 16.3 17.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 17.4 17.1 16.8 0.2 53.4 53.3 16.4 17.0 17.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 14.7 14.6 13.0 0.5 56.7 56.0 13.1 14.3 14.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 17.7 17.7 16.7 0.6 58.3 57.3 16.3 17.3 18.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 17.5 17.2 16.1 0.1 51.3 51.6 16.3 17.2 17.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 17.7 17.4 16.8 0.1 51.9 51.1 16.6 17.3 18.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 18.2 18.1 16.1 0.4 54.6 54.8 16.7 17.7 18.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 40 60 100 17.5 17.5 15.8 0.9 62.7 62.3 15.5 16.4 17.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 37 63 100 18.6 17.8 14.6 0.5 56.7 56.3 16.1 17.4 18.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 39 61 100 18.1 17.7 16.5 0.8 61.7 61.1 16.2 16.8 17.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 39 61 100 17.8 17.9 15.3 1.3 68.7 66.7 16.0 16.8 17.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 13.4 13.3 14.2 0.4 54.2 54.7 12.2 12.9 14.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 17.2 17.0 16.8 0.4 55.6 55.7 16.0 16.8 17.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------