***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.10.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.10.2019.-27.10.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 55 45 0 100 12.5 15.6 16.2 0.5 56.8 54.9 14.3 14.9 17.1 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 13.6 15.4 16.0 0.2 51.6 52.4 14.0 15.3 17.5 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 13.6 16.3 16.4 0.2 52.2 52.6 15.0 16.2 17.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 9.8 9.5 14.1 0.8 59.5 57.5 6.5 8.8 10.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 13.8 16.7 14.7 0.3 54.9 53.6 14.6 16.2 17.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 57 43 0 100 13.6 15.9 13.6 0.4 52.2 53.9 13.8 15.8 17.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 56 44 0 100 13.4 15.9 16.0 0.2 53.1 52.9 13.6 15.3 17.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 56 44 0 100 5.9 7.5 13.7 0.0 47.3 51.2 6.1 7.6 9.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 14.0 17.0 15.2 0.2 53.8 52.6 14.7 16.7 18.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 57 43 0 100 13.6 16.2 14.4 0.1 49.8 51.8 13.9 16.2 17.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 13.9 17.0 14.8 0.2 51.8 52.5 14.4 16.8 18.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 56 44 0 100 14.1 16.7 14.5 0.1 48.8 51.9 14.0 16.8 17.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 59 41 0 100 14.3 16.8 14.0 0.2 48.9 52.5 14.6 16.9 18.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 56 44 0 100 13.8 16.4 15.1 -0.2 47.3 49.3 14.8 16.7 18.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 15.3 15.3 14.9 1.1 64.9 59.7 13.5 14.7 15.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 57 43 0 100 14.8 17.8 14.5 0.3 53.7 53.6 15.1 17.6 19.1 30 Nis 06700G01 57 43 0 100 13.5 15.4 15.7 0.1 52.2 52.1 13.1 15.1 16.7 30 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 12.9 15.1 14.2 0.0 49.2 50.8 12.9 15.1 16.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 13.4 15.6 16.2 0.1 50.4 51.7 14.2 15.5 17.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 54 46 0 100 10.8 12.6 12.0 -0.1 44.7 49.9 11.0 13.0 14.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 13.9 16.9 15.8 0.3 54.8 53.0 14.4 16.4 17.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 58 42 0 100 13.5 15.5 15.6 0.1 50.7 51.8 14.2 15.5 17.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 55 45 0 100 13.5 15.8 16.3 0.0 49.6 50.4 14.4 15.9 18.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 14.1 17.2 15.2 0.0 50.1 50.7 14.4 17.2 18.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 13.0 15.5 14.8 0.6 58.5 55.9 13.9 15.0 17.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 14.9 16.8 13.8 0.1 50.6 52.9 14.5 16.7 18.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 13.5 16.9 15.7 0.6 57.7 55.4 14.4 15.5 17.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 15.4 15.1 14.5 0.9 60.2 57.6 13.3 14.6 16.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 56 44 0 100 9.9 12.4 13.4 -0.1 46.2 50.0 10.3 12.5 13.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 13.3 15.4 16.1 0.3 52.6 53.1 13.8 15.1 17.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------