***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.10.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.10.2019.-20.10.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 18.2 19.3 18.5 1.4 62.5 61.5 15.3 17.7 19.5 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 18.3 19.1 18.1 0.7 58.5 56.2 16.3 17.8 19.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 18.9 19.3 18.6 0.9 57.8 57.4 17.3 18.6 19.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 83 17 100 11.1 12.4 16.0 2.0 68.7 66.7 9.2 10.6 12.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 82 18 100 18.8 19.1 17.0 1.2 60.1 59.6 16.4 18.4 19.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 17.9 17.9 15.9 1.5 61.0 61.1 15.4 17.2 18.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 18.0 18.5 18.0 0.8 58.6 56.5 15.9 17.5 18.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 9.1 8.4 15.9 1.1 55.7 57.3 7.4 8.3 11.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 82 18 100 19.0 19.2 17.7 1.0 57.1 58.3 16.8 18.6 20.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 18.5 18.7 16.7 1.2 57.1 58.2 16.3 18.1 19.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 82 18 100 18.8 19.0 17.3 1.0 56.1 57.5 16.7 18.2 19.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 81 19 100 18.5 18.3 16.6 1.0 54.8 57.2 15.8 18.1 19.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 18.9 18.5 16.9 0.9 53.0 56.4 16.4 18.4 19.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 19.9 19.7 17.3 0.5 52.9 53.1 17.5 19.7 19.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 43 57 100 18.1 17.9 17.7 2.0 68.9 67.6 15.1 16.7 17.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 19.2 19.4 17.0 1.1 57.5 58.3 17.2 18.7 20.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 17.9 17.7 17.5 0.6 57.7 54.9 15.3 17.5 18.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 18.3 18.4 16.2 1.0 54.9 56.7 15.8 17.9 19.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 18.5 19.0 18.2 0.6 57.1 55.3 16.1 18.1 19.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 15.3 14.8 14.3 0.9 54.0 56.1 13.0 14.5 15.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 83 17 100 18.7 19.1 18.2 1.0 58.9 58.4 16.8 18.3 19.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 18.7 18.4 17.4 0.4 54.8 53.3 16.4 18.4 19.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 18.8 18.6 18.2 0.4 54.4 53.3 16.4 18.5 19.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 19.2 19.1 17.6 0.8 54.2 55.5 17.2 18.9 20.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 83 17 100 17.6 18.7 17.4 1.6 65.2 63.0 15.7 17.2 18.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 17.8 18.1 16.1 1.0 55.5 57.6 16.4 17.2 18.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 82 18 100 18.4 19.3 18.1 1.4 63.5 61.9 16.7 17.9 19.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 43 57 100 18.6 19.5 16.8 1.9 68.4 66.2 15.2 16.8 19.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 14.7 14.3 15.5 0.8 52.2 55.1 12.5 14.2 15.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 18.1 19.0 18.3 0.9 58.7 57.4 16.0 17.6 19.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------