***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.10.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.10.2019.-13.10.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 85 15 100 20.4 21.0 18.7 0.8 57.7 57.9 19.0 20.1 21.5 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 87 13 100 20.9 20.3 18.0 -0.1 48.2 48.2 19.0 20.7 21.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 86 14 100 20.5 20.8 18.6 0.3 53.7 52.9 19.1 20.1 21.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 32 68 100 15.3 15.3 16.2 1.9 70.3 68.4 10.9 13.0 15.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 87 13 100 20.5 20.7 17.3 0.9 57.1 57.6 19.1 20.2 21.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 85 15 100 20.7 21.0 16.4 1.4 63.7 62.7 18.2 20.4 21.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 88 12 100 20.4 19.4 17.8 -0.2 45.7 47.0 19.0 20.1 21.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 87 13 100 11.3 11.3 16.0 0.8 54.2 55.7 9.1 11.0 12.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 86 14 100 20.7 20.8 18.1 0.7 55.4 56.0 19.1 20.4 21.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 86 14 100 21.0 20.8 16.9 0.9 55.4 57.2 19.0 20.8 21.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 87 13 100 20.8 21.1 17.9 0.7 55.8 55.7 19.7 20.5 21.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 87 13 100 21.1 21.0 16.8 0.6 54.5 55.1 18.6 21.0 21.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 87 13 100 21.0 21.0 17.5 0.4 53.0 52.8 19.8 20.7 22.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 85 15 100 21.4 21.2 17.7 0.1 51.1 50.2 19.5 21.1 22.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 27 73 100 21.7 22.2 18.6 1.7 72.9 68.7 17.7 19.7 21.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 88 12 100 21.6 21.8 17.4 0.8 56.1 56.7 20.5 21.4 22.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 89 11 100 19.8 19.0 17.3 -0.4 43.4 45.6 18.8 19.5 21.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 86 14 100 20.1 20.0 16.2 0.7 53.9 55.1 18.2 20.0 20.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 86 14 100 21.0 20.7 18.2 -0.2 48.8 48.2 18.6 20.7 21.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 87 13 100 16.8 16.8 14.7 0.7 52.9 54.6 15.2 16.6 18.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 87 13 100 20.4 20.5 18.6 0.5 54.3 54.5 18.9 20.1 21.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 87 13 100 20.8 20.0 17.4 -0.4 43.7 45.6 19.0 20.6 21.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 86 14 100 20.9 20.6 18.2 -0.3 47.6 47.1 18.8 20.6 22.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 85 15 100 20.7 20.8 17.8 0.4 53.2 52.7 19.3 20.3 22.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 86 14 100 19.8 19.8 17.7 1.0 59.6 59.0 18.8 19.5 20.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 86 14 100 21.5 21.4 16.1 0.3 51.3 52.0 19.1 21.4 21.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 86 14 100 20.3 20.5 18.1 0.7 56.0 56.5 18.8 20.0 21.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 32 68 100 21.7 22.0 17.4 1.8 70.8 68.4 17.4 20.0 21.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 88 12 100 16.0 16.0 15.7 0.5 51.7 53.0 14.3 15.8 17.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 87 13 100 20.6 20.4 18.2 0.1 50.1 50.1 18.5 20.4 21.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------