***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.10.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.10.2019.-03.11.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 55 45 0 100 5.4 6.5 8.9 0.3 55.7 55.9 5.3 6.2 6.7 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 5.1 6.2 8.1 0.0 49.7 51.3 5.2 6.2 6.8 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 7.4 8.3 8.8 0.2 52.2 54.7 7.7 8.3 8.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 32 68 100 4.4 3.8 6.4 0.6 62.3 60.6 2.7 3.2 4.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 4.4 5.8 7.0 0.5 57.2 57.8 4.4 5.2 6.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 34 66 100 5.1 5.1 5.1 0.6 58.7 60.1 4.0 4.6 5.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 5.2 6.2 8.1 0.0 51.8 51.8 5.3 6.2 6.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 0.3 1.3 5.0 0.3 53.4 55.8 0.3 1.1 1.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 5.3 6.2 7.0 0.3 51.5 55.0 5.4 6.2 7.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 5.3 6.0 5.6 0.3 51.4 55.0 5.3 5.9 6.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 4.8 5.9 6.4 0.3 55.5 55.9 4.8 5.5 6.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 3.9 5.0 5.7 0.4 57.2 57.2 4.1 4.6 5.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 4.3 5.3 5.5 0.4 57.0 57.4 4.3 4.8 5.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 5.7 6.4 6.6 0.0 48.6 50.9 6.2 6.5 6.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 31 69 100 6.8 6.6 7.6 0.6 63.7 60.6 5.3 6.0 6.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 5.6 6.8 5.9 0.5 57.9 58.2 5.7 6.3 7.1 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 5.3 6.1 7.8 0.0 49.9 50.6 5.5 6.1 6.8 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 4.1 4.7 4.9 0.2 49.1 54.2 4.2 4.8 5.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 5.3 6.0 8.2 0.0 48.2 51.0 5.3 6.1 6.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 0.8 1.8 3.7 0.3 50.1 54.9 1.0 1.8 2.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 57 43 0 100 5.0 5.9 8.2 0.3 54.4 56.3 4.9 5.8 6.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 4.6 5.1 7.8 -0.1 47.2 49.9 4.7 5.3 6.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 6.1 5.8 8.1 0.0 45.4 50.2 5.0 5.9 6.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 5.0 5.8 6.5 0.1 49.4 52.7 5.1 5.8 6.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 5.6 6.3 8.0 0.5 57.4 57.8 5.5 6.2 6.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 34 66 100 6.0 5.9 5.4 0.6 58.8 60.3 4.8 5.7 5.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 5.2 6.7 8.5 0.4 56.8 56.7 5.4 5.8 7.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 30 70 100 5.2 5.2 6.6 0.6 63.0 60.6 3.9 4.5 5.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 3.5 4.2 4.4 0.2 47.5 52.6 3.1 4.3 5.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 5.4 6.5 8.4 0.1 51.2 52.7 5.5 6.5 7.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------