***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.10.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.10.2019.-03.11.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 61 39 0 100 1.9 4.4 7.4 0.3 51.3 52.9 3.4 4.4 6.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 2.5 4.1 6.7 0.1 49.7 51.0 2.7 4.2 5.5 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 4.7 6.6 7.3 0.2 50.1 52.5 5.6 6.6 7.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 61 39 0 100 -0.3 1.9 4.8 0.3 52.9 54.0 0.6 1.7 3.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 61 39 0 100 1.0 3.1 5.2 0.2 50.6 53.1 1.8 3.1 4.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 61 39 0 100 0.3 2.4 3.6 0.4 53.5 55.1 1.4 2.2 3.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 2.3 4.3 6.8 0.1 48.8 51.0 2.8 4.4 5.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 60 40 0 100 -2.7 0.0 3.5 0.3 51.2 52.8 -0.9 0.0 0.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 60 40 0 100 2.0 4.5 5.4 0.2 50.0 52.4 3.2 4.5 5.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 59 41 0 100 2.4 4.1 4.1 0.2 50.4 52.2 2.6 4.1 5.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 58 42 0 100 1.3 3.5 4.6 0.2 50.6 52.8 2.6 3.5 4.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 57 43 0 100 0.5 2.6 4.1 0.3 50.7 53.1 1.3 2.6 3.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 61 39 0 100 0.3 2.6 3.8 0.3 49.8 53.3 1.9 2.6 3.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 57 43 0 100 3.6 5.2 5.1 0.0 48.7 50.4 3.8 5.2 5.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 57 43 0 100 1.9 4.7 5.8 0.3 53.4 55.0 3.4 4.6 5.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 58 42 0 100 2.2 4.0 4.2 0.2 49.7 53.3 3.0 4.0 4.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 5.0 4.3 6.5 0.0 48.2 49.9 2.9 4.6 5.9 30 Palic 37000G16 60 40 0 100 0.8 2.4 3.3 0.1 49.1 51.3 1.1 2.5 4.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 2.3 4.4 6.7 0.1 49.1 51.2 3.3 4.4 5.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 62 38 0 100 -2.2 -0.5 2.2 0.2 49.1 51.9 -1.2 -0.4 0.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 57 43 0 100 1.8 4.4 6.7 0.3 51.7 53.0 2.8 4.3 5.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 1.7 3.8 6.3 0.0 48.0 49.8 2.6 4.0 4.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 2.3 4.3 6.6 0.1 47.8 51.0 3.1 4.6 5.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 58 42 0 100 2.0 4.2 4.8 0.0 47.7 50.9 2.5 4.3 4.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 60 40 0 100 2.6 5.0 6.3 0.4 51.9 53.8 2.0 5.0 5.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 61 39 0 100 1.1 3.1 3.6 0.3 51.5 53.8 1.9 3.0 4.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 61 39 0 100 1.8 4.5 6.9 0.3 51.3 52.8 2.8 4.4 5.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 58 42 0 100 0.7 2.9 4.9 0.3 53.3 54.5 2.0 2.8 3.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 60 40 0 100 0.9 2.6 3.0 0.1 49.5 51.5 1.2 2.6 3.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 2.3 4.3 7.0 0.2 49.7 51.8 3.6 4.3 5.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------