***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.10.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.10.2019.-27.10.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 36 64 100 7.2 7.4 8.9 0.9 61.2 59.1 3.7 5.2 7.4 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 35 65 100 7.5 7.2 8.4 0.7 59.1 58.3 4.0 5.6 7.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 35 65 100 9.1 8.7 8.8 0.8 60.2 59.1 5.2 7.2 9.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 34 66 100 4.1 2.3 6.2 1.0 62.1 60.5 0.5 1.8 3.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 32 68 100 6.5 5.5 6.5 0.9 59.9 59.6 3.8 4.7 5.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 33 67 100 6.0 4.3 4.6 0.8 56.3 59.6 3.3 4.2 5.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 34 66 100 7.1 6.6 8.4 0.7 58.5 58.0 3.8 5.7 7.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 1.2 1.3 4.7 0.7 58.5 58.4 -1.3 0.5 1.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 34 66 100 7.9 6.3 6.8 0.9 60.2 59.9 4.3 5.7 8.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 4.0 5.9 5.4 0.8 58.8 59.2 4.0 5.2 7.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 36 64 100 6.6 6.0 5.9 0.8 60.8 58.9 3.7 5.5 6.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 4.7 5.5 5.2 0.7 59.2 58.3 2.8 4.0 6.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 36 64 100 6.4 6.1 4.9 0.8 56.7 58.5 3.7 5.6 6.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 4.1 6.2 6.7 0.7 57.2 58.7 4.4 6.0 7.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 29 71 100 5.9 5.9 7.2 1.1 63.8 62.4 4.0 4.8 6.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 35 65 100 7.5 6.7 5.4 0.8 59.3 59.0 4.7 6.0 7.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 33 67 100 7.2 6.5 8.1 0.7 59.4 58.2 3.8 5.7 7.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 4.9 4.7 4.7 0.8 57.2 58.7 3.3 4.2 5.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 35 65 100 7.5 6.6 8.4 0.7 58.4 58.4 3.8 5.8 7.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 2.6 3.0 3.4 0.7 57.8 57.7 -0.2 2.2 3.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 33 67 100 7.3 6.0 8.1 0.8 59.0 59.4 4.0 5.6 6.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 31 69 100 6.8 5.9 8.0 0.7 59.3 58.4 2.9 5.4 6.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 3.6 6.1 8.2 0.7 57.7 58.4 3.7 5.1 7.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 35 65 100 6.9 5.3 6.4 0.8 58.8 59.8 3.7 5.0 6.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 34 66 100 7.4 7.6 7.7 0.9 61.1 59.9 4.3 5.6 7.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 3.7 5.8 4.7 0.8 56.3 59.1 4.4 5.2 6.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 3.6 8.2 8.5 1.0 62.1 59.7 4.0 5.7 8.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 32 68 100 5.2 4.8 6.2 1.0 62.2 61.0 3.5 4.0 4.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 3.8 3.8 4.3 0.7 55.4 57.7 1.2 2.9 6.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 3.5 7.3 8.6 0.8 59.0 58.5 3.9 6.1 7.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------