***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.10.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.10.2019.-20.10.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 6.4 7.0 9.9 0.7 57.9 56.6 4.2 5.8 7.4 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 6.9 6.9 9.1 0.3 52.5 52.7 4.1 6.5 7.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 9.5 9.2 9.7 0.5 56.5 55.3 6.8 9.1 9.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 4.5 4.9 7.5 1.2 64.3 62.8 2.2 4.3 5.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 6.1 6.4 8.0 0.8 60.5 58.1 3.4 5.4 7.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 5.2 5.2 5.9 0.9 58.2 59.7 2.6 4.5 5.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 6.6 6.4 9.0 0.3 53.0 52.4 4.0 6.0 7.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 1.9 2.0 5.7 0.5 53.4 54.7 -0.8 1.4 2.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 7.1 6.6 7.8 0.5 55.2 55.3 4.9 6.5 8.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 4.4 6.5 6.3 0.5 54.5 54.8 4.7 6.1 7.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 6.1 6.0 7.2 0.5 56.3 55.4 4.2 5.5 7.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 4.9 5.2 6.6 0.6 56.3 56.1 3.3 4.2 5.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 5.3 5.6 6.2 0.5 54.7 55.1 3.0 4.7 6.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 7.3 6.8 7.3 0.1 50.1 51.0 4.4 6.7 8.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 6.7 7.9 8.7 1.0 63.4 62.2 4.6 6.3 7.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 6.8 7.0 6.8 0.7 57.5 57.5 5.3 6.1 7.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 6.7 6.2 8.7 0.2 50.8 51.6 4.2 6.2 7.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 6.0 5.7 5.7 0.4 54.1 53.8 3.3 5.5 6.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 4.9 6.9 9.1 0.3 52.2 52.6 4.0 6.9 7.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 2.1 1.4 4.4 0.4 51.1 53.3 -0.3 1.3 3.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 6.5 6.3 9.1 0.6 56.1 56.3 4.7 5.9 7.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 6.3 5.8 8.7 0.1 50.3 50.9 3.5 5.8 6.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 56 44 0 100 4.4 6.4 9.0 0.2 50.5 51.8 3.9 6.4 7.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 6.2 6.3 7.4 0.3 54.0 52.9 4.2 5.7 6.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 7.0 7.4 9.2 0.9 59.4 59.2 4.7 6.4 7.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 81 19 100 5.6 5.7 6.1 0.7 54.6 57.0 4.1 5.1 6.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 7.0 7.3 9.5 0.7 57.8 57.2 4.4 6.4 7.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 5.0 6.0 7.6 1.1 63.1 62.2 2.4 4.5 6.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 5.4 5.1 5.1 0.2 50.9 52.1 2.4 5.0 5.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 7.4 7.2 9.4 0.4 54.4 53.7 4.5 7.1 7.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------