***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.10.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.10.2019.-13.10.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 8.8 8.0 9.2 -0.5 44.4 43.8 7.0 8.2 9.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 7.3 7.7 8.3 -1.1 36.9 37.2 7.6 8.1 9.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 10.9 10.3 9.4 -0.6 42.3 42.6 10.0 10.5 11.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 6.1 5.8 7.1 0.0 49.8 49.6 5.2 5.8 7.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 82 18 100 8.4 7.9 8.2 -0.1 46.6 47.7 6.4 8.1 8.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 82 18 100 7.7 7.6 6.2 0.2 54.5 53.1 5.6 7.5 8.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 7.3 8.0 8.4 -0.9 39.1 39.2 7.5 8.3 9.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 83 17 100 3.2 2.9 6.0 -0.1 49.2 47.8 2.4 3.0 3.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 9.4 9.0 7.8 -0.5 42.2 42.4 7.4 9.1 9.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 8.5 8.1 6.5 -0.3 46.4 45.1 7.8 8.1 9.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 82 18 100 8.0 7.5 7.7 -0.2 48.1 47.2 6.7 7.7 9.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 84 16 100 7.1 7.2 7.0 0.1 52.2 51.5 5.8 6.8 8.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 83 17 100 8.1 8.4 7.2 0.2 56.5 53.3 5.9 7.9 8.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 9.0 8.3 7.3 -0.8 40.0 39.2 8.0 8.6 9.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 9.2 8.9 8.8 -0.2 50.4 47.3 7.8 8.8 9.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 83 17 100 9.2 9.4 7.4 0.1 54.2 52.6 7.5 9.0 10.0 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 7.7 7.6 8.0 -1.1 36.2 37.1 7.3 8.8 9.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 82 18 100 7.9 7.4 6.0 -0.3 46.6 45.3 6.5 7.6 8.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 8.7 7.7 8.4 -1.1 35.9 36.6 7.6 8.1 9.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 83 17 100 4.0 3.6 4.9 -0.1 47.9 47.1 2.0 3.7 4.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 8.5 7.8 8.9 -0.4 45.0 44.6 6.2 8.2 9.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 58 42 0 100 6.5 6.9 8.3 -1.1 33.8 35.7 6.9 7.5 8.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 8.5 7.5 8.5 -1.1 36.1 36.2 7.4 8.3 8.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 8.3 7.7 7.5 -0.6 42.3 41.5 7.3 7.9 8.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 8.7 8.1 8.9 -0.4 46.2 45.1 7.5 8.3 9.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 85 15 100 8.3 8.7 7.1 0.6 58.3 58.3 6.2 8.1 8.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 81 19 100 8.8 8.1 9.0 -0.4 47.0 45.5 7.3 8.1 9.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 7.5 7.2 7.6 0.0 52.6 50.2 6.1 7.1 8.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 6.9 6.3 5.3 -0.4 42.5 43.3 6.2 6.6 7.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 9.2 8.1 8.8 -0.9 39.6 39.3 7.8 8.5 9.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------