***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.10.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.10.2013.-03.11.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 82 18 0 100 9999.0 0.0 27.7 56.9 29.5 30.4 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 71 29 0 100 18.9 16.9 29.8 63.1 31.5 32.3 17.0 28.3 42.9 30 Becej 27400G00 77 23 0 100 15.0 20.9 29.3 60.3 30.9 31.8 24.4 36.9 55.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 72 28 0 100 23.3 23.3 30.7 56.2 28.1 28.9 25.6 37.8 56.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 72 28 0 100 20.1 27.8 30.9 57.7 29.4 29.3 29.3 36.0 43.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 67 33 0 100 18.3 16.0 35.0 59.6 30.7 29.2 16.7 35.4 50.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 67 33 0 100 16.3 19.4 29.5 61.5 33.4 31.6 19.3 24.9 40.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 57 43 0 100 33.6 40.4 39.3 66.9 35.1 34.0 38.6 49.0 67.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 77 23 0 100 15.9 30.9 31.2 58.8 30.9 30.2 32.0 36.2 42.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 63 37 0 100 27.8 33.9 37.3 64.1 32.6 32.6 34.0 42.5 50.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 61 39 0 100 20.1 26.2 31.4 61.2 31.3 30.9 26.6 32.5 44.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 64 36 0 100 17.6 29.2 32.9 64.7 33.3 32.6 29.0 37.1 43.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 79 21 0 100 16.1 22.1 33.6 61.4 28.8 30.1 23.4 40.4 47.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 64 36 0 100 31.0 36.7 39.7 68.0 33.5 34.2 36.1 61.0 76.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 74 26 0 100 12.4 9.0 29.2 52.2 24.1 26.9 11.5 28.5 50.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 70 30 0 100 15.4 18.1 31.3 60.1 28.6 29.7 21.0 37.2 42.5 30 Nis 06700G01 65 35 0 100 17.1 16.2 29.4 62.5 34.0 32.1 16.1 25.0 35.1 30 Palic 37000G16 59 41 0 100 28.9 35.3 43.4 68.0 33.6 34.6 35.3 44.6 56.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 70 30 0 100 19.6 16.9 30.4 64.1 31.7 32.9 17.4 34.0 62.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 56 44 0 100 39.5 34.2 56.4 70.8 34.5 36.1 33.9 50.0 62.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 77 23 0 100 17.8 24.5 28.9 57.8 29.9 30.3 26.4 36.6 46.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 62 38 0 100 20.4 24.7 32.1 66.2 35.9 33.3 22.5 34.0 49.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 73 27 0 100 17.4 21.8 32.2 65.9 32.8 33.9 22.1 36.6 58.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 62 38 0 100 25.9 32.6 37.4 66.0 33.7 33.8 31.4 46.8 55.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 77 23 0 100 16.0 16.9 30.9 57.4 27.2 29.5 19.5 29.8 43.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 74 26 0 100 17.7 29.0 33.6 62.4 28.7 30.4 31.9 37.3 48.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 78 22 0 100 14.2 15.7 30.2 57.9 28.2 30.1 17.4 27.3 47.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 71 29 0 100 15.7 12.8 29.9 55.4 27.0 28.1 17.2 31.3 39.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 56 44 0 100 44.3 43.2 48.7 70.4 36.0 35.7 41.9 63.5 89.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 77 23 0 100 13.0 14.4 29.3 61.5 30.5 32.0 15.0 26.9 48.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------