***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.10.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.10.2013.-03.11.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 58 42 0 100 9999.0 0.0 9.3 80.5 58.8 44.6 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 61 39 0 100 1.0 4.4 9.3 79.8 54.1 43.1 0.8 2.5 7.6 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 1.4 7.2 9.7 79.7 58.9 44.8 0.3 3.2 11.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 2.1 5.9 9.9 77.8 56.6 44.0 1.9 4.3 9.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 60 40 0 100 1.6 6.9 9.7 78.8 57.7 43.6 0.4 4.0 9.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 1.2 2.6 10.2 73.3 51.8 41.3 0.3 2.6 3.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 62 38 0 100 1.5 4.4 9.3 80.6 56.3 44.3 0.6 3.9 6.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 61 39 0 100 2.2 6.2 10.4 76.7 53.3 41.7 1.0 5.3 8.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 60 40 0 100 0.9 9.3 9.9 79.0 60.3 43.7 0.1 2.2 10.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 60 40 0 100 2.0 5.5 10.5 77.5 55.8 42.4 0.7 5.1 7.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 1.2 5.8 9.2 78.5 58.4 43.0 0.3 2.7 7.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 60 40 0 100 1.3 4.5 9.2 77.4 56.0 42.2 0.5 3.3 6.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 1.5 4.8 9.9 77.3 54.1 42.3 0.4 3.3 7.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 57 43 0 100 4.0 10.6 11.4 78.0 53.9 41.6 1.1 8.9 15.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 3.0 2.0 9.6 74.0 57.6 45.0 0.2 1.5 2.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 0.9 3.5 9.4 78.7 57.6 43.5 0.3 1.9 4.4 30 Nis 06700G01 58 42 0 100 1.2 3.2 9.0 78.6 54.0 44.4 0.5 2.8 7.7 30 Palic 37000G16 61 39 0 100 1.8 4.4 11.6 75.7 51.3 40.9 1.7 4.2 9.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 61 39 0 100 1.5 5.9 9.5 79.8 55.5 42.9 0.7 3.9 7.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 59 41 0 100 1.5 3.3 13.7 74.7 46.6 40.6 0.9 3.6 7.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 60 40 0 100 1.7 9.3 9.9 82.9 63.7 45.7 0.4 4.2 9.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 61 39 0 100 1.2 4.2 9.8 82.8 58.2 43.8 0.7 3.2 8.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 58 42 0 100 1.4 4.7 10.0 80.0 55.7 43.0 1.2 3.3 7.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 57 43 0 100 2.7 9.1 10.9 77.2 56.4 42.5 1.1 6.3 13.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 1.7 5.6 10.7 83.4 56.7 44.3 1.1 3.7 6.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 55 45 0 100 1.1 3.6 9.5 74.3 56.5 42.4 0.4 2.5 5.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 2.0 6.1 10.3 83.0 56.9 44.4 0.2 4.4 9.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 4.2 3.9 9.5 75.4 57.2 44.5 0.2 2.9 4.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 61 39 0 100 3.3 7.1 12.3 74.4 49.4 40.0 2.5 8.4 15.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 59 41 0 100 1.2 4.1 9.3 79.5 55.4 43.3 1.0 2.9 5.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------