***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.10.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.10.2013.-27.10.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 9999.0 0.0 8.7 71.7 55.9 43.8 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 6.8 7.0 9.5 87.6 59.2 46.2 0.5 4.9 9.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 10.5 6.9 8.3 72.0 54.9 44.8 2.8 6.2 13.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 11.4 12.5 9.6 74.2 57.6 45.8 2.1 8.0 15.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 10.0 10.2 8.9 70.5 58.5 45.7 3.2 7.6 11.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 6.6 6.8 11.1 86.2 57.3 45.5 1.2 4.3 10.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 1.9 5.8 9.6 84.9 57.5 44.9 1.8 4.1 8.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 5.4 14.3 10.7 80.0 61.0 47.0 4.4 9.9 17.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 3.9 8.1 8.7 67.4 57.5 46.1 3.4 7.3 9.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 10.3 10.3 9.9 73.2 58.6 46.7 3.6 8.3 12.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 3.1 9.6 8.4 73.0 60.4 45.7 2.3 5.9 11.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 3.0 7.2 8.8 79.2 61.8 46.1 2.1 6.1 7.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 9.7 8.4 9.6 82.2 56.7 45.4 2.7 6.4 10.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 13.6 12.1 10.7 78.2 55.7 47.5 5.7 10.9 20.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 6.8 8.9 9.8 75.5 59.0 43.9 1.5 4.7 13.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 8.0 6.6 8.8 77.3 58.8 45.8 3.0 4.3 10.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 4.8 5.0 9.5 87.2 59.4 46.1 1.1 2.3 10.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 10.6 10.0 11.6 78.5 57.2 48.1 3.3 6.8 12.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 9.0 10.8 9.2 86.1 58.6 47.1 2.0 5.8 15.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 11.0 11.5 17.1 89.8 62.3 48.5 4.1 7.9 12.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 2.9 8.2 8.2 65.6 56.2 44.6 2.7 5.9 15.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 7.9 11.6 10.0 90.3 59.1 48.5 0.8 5.1 12.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 11.9 10.4 9.1 81.2 56.3 47.6 3.5 9.1 20.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 11.0 9.9 9.8 74.3 54.4 47.5 5.0 8.0 15.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 7.3 5.3 10.0 74.8 56.0 44.6 1.4 3.5 8.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 4.0 10.6 9.7 87.9 59.7 46.0 2.7 8.6 12.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 7.4 3.7 9.9 76.4 56.3 44.4 1.0 2.9 11.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 8.9 8.9 9.2 74.5 57.7 45.4 1.7 7.3 10.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 12.9 16.5 13.7 84.2 60.2 48.7 5.8 8.6 18.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 2.6 7.1 9.1 83.0 56.7 45.0 1.2 5.3 10.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------