***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.10.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.10.2013.-20.10.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 80 20 0 100 9999.0 0.0 5.7 51.2 41.7 30.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 74 26 0 100 1.9 7.2 7.5 68.3 50.1 35.1 0.5 7.2 10.4 30 Becej 27400G00 73 27 0 100 1.1 2.0 6.4 57.0 44.3 32.5 1.0 3.7 11.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 68 32 0 100 1.9 3.5 6.3 48.3 41.8 32.8 2.5 5.1 9.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 70 30 0 100 2.0 3.3 6.6 49.9 40.9 31.1 1.1 6.8 13.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 65 35 0 100 1.5 1.3 7.5 50.4 36.0 32.5 1.1 4.2 9.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 73 27 0 100 1.5 5.3 7.2 64.4 49.4 33.7 0.8 5.7 10.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 69 31 0 100 3.4 6.9 8.6 59.6 40.1 35.4 2.7 10.2 16.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 65 35 0 100 2.6 3.1 6.6 51.0 37.8 31.8 1.6 7.4 11.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 71 29 0 100 3.9 3.2 8.0 54.8 36.7 32.8 2.3 12.3 16.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 69 31 0 100 2.7 5.3 7.0 55.5 41.4 32.8 3.3 8.6 13.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 67 33 0 100 2.7 1.4 7.5 62.1 42.2 36.1 0.6 8.1 11.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 65 35 0 100 2.5 1.3 7.4 54.9 38.8 34.2 0.7 7.2 12.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 64 36 0 100 3.4 7.9 8.8 67.5 42.0 35.8 5.6 9.0 19.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 69 31 0 100 0.6 1.5 5.8 44.0 41.2 32.3 0.7 2.0 6.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 66 34 0 100 2.0 4.3 6.9 55.5 40.3 34.0 0.9 6.0 12.1 30 Nis 06700G01 67 33 0 100 1.1 4.0 8.0 71.5 51.0 36.0 0.5 3.4 8.6 30 Palic 37000G16 70 30 0 100 1.7 3.6 9.2 57.6 38.7 33.2 2.4 4.0 17.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 73 27 0 100 2.4 8.8 7.6 69.4 49.3 36.0 0.7 8.9 12.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 64 36 0 100 3.1 4.6 11.4 54.6 40.9 34.0 1.0 8.4 21.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 68 32 0 100 0.8 2.0 5.8 49.8 42.2 32.5 1.3 2.5 11.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 68 32 0 100 1.9 6.0 8.8 77.4 50.6 38.0 0.3 5.9 11.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 73 27 0 100 2.7 9.3 7.8 70.5 49.2 36.8 1.3 9.7 13.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 71 29 0 100 2.1 2.5 8.2 60.9 40.8 33.0 2.2 6.9 15.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 74 26 0 100 0.7 1.1 6.1 48.8 37.5 30.3 0.8 2.7 13.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 2.2 4.0 7.0 55.7 41.5 36.9 1.8 4.9 11.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 77 23 0 100 1.2 4.5 6.2 51.5 39.2 30.6 2.9 5.2 10.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 67 33 0 100 1.4 3.0 6.3 49.6 42.4 33.5 2.2 3.8 7.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 67 33 0 100 4.1 4.6 9.9 57.7 37.7 33.8 3.7 9.5 22.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 76 24 0 100 1.7 6.2 7.0 63.3 48.0 33.4 1.2 6.9 11.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------