***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.10.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.10.2013.-13.10.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 76 24 0 100 9999.0 0.0 3.9 28.6 31.5 24.2 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 77 23 0 100 1.3 0.6 3.5 25.5 26.2 21.4 1.4 5.8 12.6 30 Becej 27400G00 70 30 0 100 2.4 0.6 4.9 36.0 33.1 27.2 0.6 8.2 15.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 72 28 0 100 3.9 3.7 5.0 31.2 32.8 27.2 3.7 10.4 16.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 66 34 0 100 1.7 1.8 5.7 37.2 36.7 29.3 1.5 4.3 18.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 62 38 0 100 3.6 4.6 6.3 36.6 38.2 29.0 3.1 8.9 21.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 83 17 0 100 1.1 0.2 3.4 24.5 24.5 19.3 0.6 6.2 13.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 7.5 11.9 9.6 55.5 44.6 38.7 7.9 13.4 22.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 68 32 0 100 2.3 2.2 6.0 41.1 38.4 30.6 1.5 6.8 17.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 60 40 0 100 3.8 4.0 9.0 53.8 42.2 36.7 1.6 9.2 18.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 62 38 0 100 1.8 3.4 6.8 43.8 41.1 33.4 0.9 4.6 15.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 58 42 0 100 3.9 2.7 7.4 47.0 43.1 35.9 1.6 9.3 14.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 60 40 0 100 2.7 4.8 6.8 40.1 36.6 31.8 3.8 5.8 20.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 58 42 0 100 2.9 1.8 8.8 51.5 38.6 34.4 1.2 7.0 22.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 80 20 0 100 0.6 0.7 4.0 24.0 29.0 23.6 1.3 3.3 9.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 62 38 0 100 2.3 1.3 6.1 37.9 37.5 30.7 0.9 6.0 13.6 30 Nis 06700G01 82 18 0 100 0.6 0.0 2.9 21.6 26.0 19.4 0.4 3.6 11.2 30 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 5.3 8.7 11.1 62.2 46.5 40.1 2.1 11.3 24.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 73 27 0 100 1.3 0.2 4.1 29.4 29.4 23.8 0.9 4.7 12.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 15.9 12.9 14.3 66.3 51.2 43.3 4.1 12.0 19.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 71 29 0 100 2.7 4.1 5.0 35.7 34.8 27.9 4.0 8.9 19.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 74 26 0 100 1.7 0.0 3.6 25.2 28.9 21.0 0.1 6.6 15.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 70 30 0 100 1.2 0.6 5.3 37.4 33.3 28.5 0.5 4.1 12.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 62 38 0 100 1.6 3.5 8.5 53.2 41.8 35.6 0.9 3.9 18.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 81 19 0 100 1.5 0.1 4.1 27.0 26.2 22.6 2.0 8.1 14.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 4.9 6.5 7.4 42.3 40.0 33.1 5.6 10.4 21.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 81 19 0 100 0.7 0.2 3.7 25.6 26.2 22.3 0.6 3.8 11.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 69 31 0 100 1.0 1.0 4.9 29.8 34.1 27.1 0.8 2.8 12.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 8.4 15.6 12.7 67.1 48.6 42.4 4.1 17.5 25.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 79 21 0 100 1.1 0.4 3.9 27.9 26.9 22.6 0.8 5.5 11.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------