***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.10.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.10.2013.-03.11.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 9999.0 0.0 15.4 -0.5 42.7 43.9 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 17.3 16.7 15.2 -0.5 42.8 44.3 16.5 17.0 17.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 82 18 100 17.5 17.1 15.5 -0.4 43.8 45.3 16.7 17.2 18.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 11.3 9.1 13.2 -0.8 36.5 39.6 9.1 10.9 12.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 17.8 16.8 14.1 -0.4 44.3 44.6 16.3 17.4 18.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 17.3 16.2 13.1 -0.2 45.5 46.4 15.4 16.9 18.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 17.0 16.4 15.2 -0.5 42.4 44.1 15.8 16.6 17.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 9.2 8.9 13.4 0.0 48.6 48.9 7.9 8.9 9.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 18.0 17.3 14.8 -0.3 46.7 46.4 16.3 17.5 19.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 17.5 16.9 14.0 -0.1 49.1 48.1 16.0 17.1 18.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 18.0 16.9 14.1 -0.3 46.7 46.3 16.0 17.5 18.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 17.6 16.8 14.0 -0.1 47.8 48.1 15.8 17.1 18.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 18.2 18.1 14.0 0.0 51.2 49.1 16.6 17.8 18.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 18.1 17.5 14.8 -0.3 47.3 47.2 16.9 17.7 18.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 63 37 0 100 15.0 15.6 13.5 -0.9 32.7 36.2 15.6 16.3 17.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 17.0 17.9 13.9 -0.3 46.7 46.1 16.9 18.4 19.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 16.6 16.3 15.0 -0.3 45.3 46.3 16.0 16.4 16.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 16.7 16.5 13.7 0.0 51.1 48.9 15.4 16.3 17.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 17.3 16.6 15.4 -0.4 43.5 45.1 16.4 17.0 17.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 14.7 14.6 12.1 0.1 52.3 50.6 13.1 14.3 14.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 17.7 17.1 15.2 -0.4 44.8 45.1 16.3 17.3 18.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 17.5 17.1 15.1 -0.3 45.9 46.5 16.3 17.2 17.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 81 19 100 17.6 16.9 15.6 -0.3 45.5 46.6 16.6 17.3 18.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 18.1 17.7 14.8 -0.2 48.7 47.6 16.7 17.7 18.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 16.8 16.2 14.0 -0.6 42.5 42.9 15.5 16.4 17.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 17.8 17.5 13.9 0.2 52.1 51.8 16.1 17.4 18.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 17.2 16.6 14.7 -0.5 43.4 43.6 16.2 16.8 17.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 58 42 0 100 15.2 16.1 13.5 -0.8 35.3 38.3 16.0 16.8 17.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 13.3 13.2 13.1 0.1 52.5 50.4 12.2 12.9 14.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 82 18 100 17.1 16.4 15.4 -0.5 42.2 44.0 16.0 16.8 17.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------