***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.10.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.10.2013.-03.11.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 9999.0 0.0 13.3 0.4 53.0 53.0 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 14.7 14.9 13.2 0.4 53.2 53.7 13.0 14.3 15.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 16.4 15.9 13.6 0.5 53.6 54.3 12.9 15.6 17.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 10.5 9.7 11.3 0.1 50.5 50.5 6.9 9.6 11.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 15.7 15.0 12.0 0.4 52.1 52.7 13.5 14.7 16.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 15.6 14.9 11.0 0.5 50.4 53.5 13.7 14.9 15.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 14.5 14.4 13.0 0.3 53.8 53.5 12.7 14.0 14.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 8.2 7.7 11.4 0.7 52.3 55.5 6.4 7.7 8.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 16.3 16.3 12.7 0.6 55.8 54.3 13.2 15.4 16.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 15.8 15.7 12.0 0.7 54.3 55.4 13.1 14.8 16.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 16.1 15.8 12.0 0.6 52.2 54.0 13.5 15.2 17.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 16.2 15.5 12.0 0.7 51.0 55.4 13.3 15.4 16.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 16.2 15.5 11.7 0.7 50.8 55.6 13.9 15.4 16.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 13.8 16.8 13.0 0.7 55.5 56.2 11.7 16.6 17.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 12.6 14.7 11.3 0.0 50.6 49.5 13.0 14.6 15.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 16.7 15.8 11.8 0.5 50.5 53.9 14.8 15.7 17.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 13.8 13.8 12.9 0.4 54.1 54.0 12.2 13.3 14.5 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 11.6 14.5 11.8 0.8 55.1 56.5 12.1 13.3 16.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 15.2 15.2 13.5 0.5 54.3 54.3 12.4 14.6 16.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 56 44 0 100 10.0 13.1 10.0 0.7 55.0 56.8 10.7 12.4 13.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 16.2 15.8 13.1 0.5 54.3 53.7 12.9 15.5 17.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 14.8 14.9 13.1 0.5 55.5 54.7 12.3 14.3 15.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 15.6 15.7 13.7 0.6 56.1 55.2 12.1 15.0 16.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 13.6 16.3 13.0 0.8 54.7 55.9 12.6 15.8 17.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 14.6 14.0 11.8 0.3 51.5 52.0 13.1 14.0 15.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 16.1 15.4 11.7 0.8 52.7 56.6 13.4 15.4 16.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 15.5 14.8 12.6 0.3 53.1 52.7 13.2 14.6 16.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 13.4 15.6 11.5 0.1 50.5 50.4 12.7 15.5 17.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 9.4 12.5 11.1 0.8 55.2 57.0 9.4 12.1 13.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 14.7 14.6 13.3 0.4 53.0 53.5 12.9 14.1 15.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------