***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.10.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.10.2013.-27.10.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 9999.0 0.0 15.0 -0.2 46.7 48.4 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 16.1 15.1 14.8 -0.2 48.4 49.2 14.0 15.3 17.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 17.0 16.0 15.2 -0.1 47.3 49.5 15.0 16.2 17.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 7.2 8.8 13.2 -0.3 44.2 46.9 6.5 8.8 10.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 13.7 16.0 13.7 -0.1 46.2 48.7 14.6 16.2 17.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 16.5 15.7 12.9 0.1 46.7 51.2 13.8 15.8 17.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 16.0 15.0 14.7 -0.2 48.9 49.1 13.6 15.3 17.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 5.9 7.6 13.0 0.0 47.9 49.6 6.1 7.6 9.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 14.0 16.5 14.4 0.0 47.6 49.8 14.7 16.7 18.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 13.6 16.2 13.6 0.0 47.9 49.7 13.9 16.2 17.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 14.0 16.4 13.7 0.0 46.4 49.4 14.4 16.8 18.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 56 44 0 100 14.1 16.7 13.7 0.0 47.1 49.8 14.0 16.8 17.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 14.6 16.7 13.4 0.1 47.4 50.6 14.6 16.9 18.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 14.0 16.5 14.5 0.0 48.7 49.8 14.8 16.7 18.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 13.2 14.3 13.1 -0.4 43.9 45.6 13.5 14.7 15.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 15.0 17.4 13.5 0.0 46.3 49.6 15.1 17.6 19.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 15.9 15.2 14.5 -0.1 50.6 50.3 13.1 15.1 16.7 30 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 12.9 15.1 13.3 0.0 48.3 49.3 12.9 15.1 16.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 16.3 15.3 15.0 -0.2 48.0 49.5 14.2 15.5 17.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 10.9 12.8 11.4 -0.1 46.8 48.9 11.0 13.0 14.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 14.0 16.2 14.8 -0.1 46.5 49.3 14.4 16.4 17.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 16.5 15.5 14.7 -0.1 50.6 49.7 14.2 15.5 17.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 16.7 15.5 15.2 -0.1 48.6 50.0 14.4 15.9 18.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 14.2 17.1 14.4 0.0 48.0 49.8 14.4 17.2 18.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 16.0 14.7 13.6 -0.2 45.7 48.0 13.9 15.0 17.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 14.9 16.5 13.5 0.2 49.0 51.7 14.5 16.7 18.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 16.4 15.3 14.3 -0.2 46.9 48.2 14.4 15.5 17.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 13.0 14.4 13.3 -0.3 43.7 46.7 13.3 14.6 16.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 10.0 12.4 12.6 0.0 47.8 49.3 10.3 12.5 13.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 16.1 15.0 14.9 -0.2 47.6 48.8 13.8 15.1 17.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------