***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.10.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.10.2013.-20.10.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 58 42 0 100 9999.0 0.0 15.4 -1.5 32.8 36.0 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 55 45 0 100 15.3 17.6 15.5 -1.3 38.6 39.0 16.3 17.8 19.4 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 15.3 17.3 15.6 -1.4 34.6 37.5 17.3 18.6 19.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 68 32 0 100 7.8 8.3 13.5 -1.8 27.2 31.4 9.2 10.6 12.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 70 30 0 100 15.0 15.7 14.1 -1.6 30.8 34.8 16.4 18.4 19.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 73 27 0 100 13.5 15.3 12.8 -1.6 28.5 34.7 15.4 17.2 18.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 14.8 17.1 15.4 -1.3 38.2 38.9 15.9 17.5 18.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 59 41 0 100 6.0 7.4 13.5 -1.1 33.6 39.5 7.4 8.3 11.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 66 34 0 100 14.8 16.8 14.7 -1.4 32.3 36.8 16.8 18.6 20.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 59 41 0 100 14.9 16.3 14.0 -1.2 33.7 39.0 16.3 18.1 19.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 70 30 0 100 14.7 16.1 14.1 -1.4 30.2 36.3 16.7 18.2 19.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 64 36 0 100 14.6 15.8 14.1 -1.3 32.5 38.1 15.8 18.1 19.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 68 32 0 100 14.9 16.4 13.7 -1.3 31.7 37.8 16.4 18.4 19.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 16.3 18.4 15.0 -1.1 39.3 41.8 17.5 19.7 19.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 70 30 0 100 14.4 14.4 13.5 -2.0 21.8 28.9 15.1 16.7 17.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 71 29 0 100 15.2 16.9 13.8 -1.5 29.2 35.4 17.2 18.7 20.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 17.9 17.1 15.4 -1.1 40.7 41.5 15.3 17.5 18.2 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 14.8 16.5 13.8 -1.0 36.4 41.4 15.8 17.9 19.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 15.3 17.3 15.7 -1.2 38.9 39.4 16.1 18.1 19.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 15.3 13.1 12.2 -0.8 36.6 43.4 13.0 14.5 15.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 63 37 0 100 14.9 16.6 15.1 -1.5 32.1 35.8 16.8 18.3 19.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 18.7 18.2 15.4 -1.0 39.7 41.5 16.4 18.4 19.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 15.8 17.6 15.7 -1.2 38.6 40.4 16.4 18.5 19.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 15.6 17.6 14.9 -1.1 36.5 40.5 17.2 18.9 20.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 62 38 0 100 14.8 15.1 14.0 -1.6 30.9 34.3 15.7 17.2 18.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 55 45 0 100 15.1 16.7 13.9 -1.0 36.5 40.6 16.4 17.2 18.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 58 42 0 100 15.2 16.6 14.8 -1.5 32.7 36.0 16.7 17.9 19.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 71 29 0 100 14.7 14.6 13.7 -1.9 24.3 30.4 15.2 16.8 19.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 14.7 13.0 13.2 -0.8 37.4 43.2 12.5 14.2 15.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 57 43 0 100 14.9 16.7 15.6 -1.4 35.9 38.0 16.0 17.6 19.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------