***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.10.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.10.2013.-13.10.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 82 18 100 9999.0 0.0 17.7 -0.7 39.2 40.8 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 83 17 100 21.0 19.7 17.5 -0.8 40.9 40.8 19.0 20.7 21.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 83 17 100 20.5 19.3 17.8 -0.7 42.5 41.7 19.1 20.1 21.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 11.4 11.2 14.9 -1.0 37.2 38.2 10.9 13.0 15.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 83 17 100 20.6 20.0 16.6 -0.4 44.0 44.7 19.1 20.2 21.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 83 17 100 20.7 20.4 15.7 0.2 53.3 52.3 18.2 20.4 21.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 82 18 100 20.5 19.4 17.5 -0.7 41.1 40.9 19.0 20.1 21.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 83 17 100 11.4 10.9 15.8 0.2 49.3 51.7 9.1 11.0 12.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 83 17 100 20.8 20.1 17.5 -0.3 43.9 45.4 19.1 20.4 21.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 84 16 100 21.0 20.8 16.5 0.0 47.1 49.2 19.0 20.8 21.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 85 15 100 20.8 20.2 16.7 -0.2 45.2 47.1 19.7 20.5 21.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 84 16 100 21.2 20.9 16.4 0.1 47.0 50.2 18.6 21.0 21.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 87 13 100 21.0 20.7 17.0 0.4 49.9 53.2 19.8 20.7 22.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 83 17 100 21.4 20.3 16.9 -0.7 43.0 42.3 19.5 21.1 22.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 65 35 0 100 17.4 17.7 15.9 -1.3 32.1 34.1 17.7 19.7 21.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 83 17 100 21.7 21.1 16.7 0.0 46.5 48.6 20.5 21.4 22.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 86 14 100 19.8 19.0 17.4 -0.5 42.8 43.8 18.8 19.5 21.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 85 15 100 20.1 20.0 15.9 0.1 47.8 49.1 18.2 20.0 20.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 83 17 100 21.0 19.5 17.6 -0.7 41.8 41.2 18.6 20.7 21.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 86 14 100 16.9 16.8 14.6 0.6 53.8 54.3 15.2 16.6 18.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 83 17 100 20.5 19.7 17.8 -0.5 42.7 43.1 18.9 20.1 21.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 84 16 100 20.9 19.9 17.3 -0.6 43.0 43.1 19.0 20.6 21.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 84 16 100 20.9 20.3 17.6 -0.6 42.2 41.9 18.8 20.6 22.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 84 16 100 20.7 19.9 17.0 -0.4 45.7 44.9 19.3 20.3 22.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 19.9 19.1 16.5 -0.7 40.9 42.1 18.8 19.5 20.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 85 15 100 21.6 21.5 16.6 0.6 56.0 56.4 19.1 21.4 21.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 82 18 100 20.4 19.6 17.3 -0.6 40.6 42.0 18.8 20.0 21.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 60 40 0 100 17.8 17.8 15.5 -1.1 34.7 36.7 17.4 20.0 21.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 86 14 100 16.1 15.8 15.6 0.4 50.2 51.6 14.3 15.8 17.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 82 18 100 20.7 19.2 17.6 -0.8 41.3 40.2 18.5 20.4 21.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------