***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.10.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.10.2013.-03.11.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 65 35 0 100 9999.0 0.0 6.7 -1.7 21.4 26.6 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 65 35 0 100 4.8 4.6 6.4 -1.5 23.3 27.4 5.2 6.2 6.8 30 Becej 27400G00 67 33 0 100 7.1 7.1 6.6 -1.4 25.3 29.6 7.7 8.3 8.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 75 25 0 100 2.1 2.2 4.4 -1.6 20.0 24.0 2.7 3.2 4.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 68 32 0 100 4.2 4.3 4.7 -1.6 21.7 25.9 4.4 5.2 6.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 75 25 0 100 3.8 3.7 3.2 -1.4 20.5 27.9 4.0 4.6 5.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 66 34 0 100 4.9 4.5 6.3 -1.7 19.3 25.6 5.3 6.2 6.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 64 36 0 100 0.1 0.0 4.0 -1.0 27.9 34.1 0.3 1.1 1.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 67 33 0 100 5.1 5.0 5.2 -1.6 22.0 27.1 5.4 6.2 7.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 67 33 0 100 5.2 5.0 4.3 -1.3 26.0 31.1 5.3 5.9 6.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 66 34 0 100 4.6 4.4 4.5 -1.4 23.5 28.2 4.8 5.5 6.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 66 34 0 100 3.7 3.8 4.3 -1.2 25.2 30.8 4.1 4.6 5.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 70 30 0 100 4.1 3.9 3.6 -1.5 19.1 26.2 4.3 4.8 5.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 64 36 0 100 5.6 5.8 5.6 -1.1 28.6 32.8 6.2 6.5 6.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 77 23 0 100 5.1 4.9 4.9 -1.8 17.8 20.8 5.3 6.0 6.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 71 29 0 100 5.4 5.2 4.0 -1.5 19.7 25.8 5.7 6.3 7.1 30 Nis 06700G01 64 36 0 100 5.1 4.8 6.2 -1.5 23.7 27.7 5.5 6.1 6.8 30 Palic 37000G16 66 34 0 100 3.9 3.8 3.9 -1.2 27.7 32.9 4.2 4.8 5.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 63 37 0 100 5.1 5.0 6.6 -1.4 25.7 29.2 5.3 6.1 6.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 63 37 0 100 0.6 0.8 2.9 -0.8 28.6 37.9 1.0 1.8 2.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 66 34 0 100 4.9 4.7 6.2 -1.5 22.4 27.7 4.9 5.8 6.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 62 38 0 100 4.4 4.1 6.3 -1.4 25.2 28.9 4.7 5.3 6.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 62 38 0 100 5.1 5.0 6.5 -1.2 27.4 31.3 5.0 5.9 6.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 65 35 0 100 4.8 4.8 5.3 -1.2 28.7 32.0 5.1 5.8 6.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 66 34 0 100 5.5 5.2 5.4 -1.6 21.2 26.4 5.5 6.2 6.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 70 30 0 100 4.5 4.4 4.1 -1.2 23.3 31.2 4.8 5.7 5.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 68 32 0 100 5.0 4.7 5.9 -1.8 20.3 25.0 5.4 5.8 7.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 76 24 0 100 3.8 3.6 4.6 -1.7 19.0 22.9 3.9 4.5 5.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 62 38 0 100 3.4 3.0 3.6 -0.9 30.4 36.7 3.1 4.3 5.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 64 36 0 100 5.2 5.1 6.6 -1.6 22.8 27.2 5.5 6.5 7.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------