***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.10.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.10.2013.-03.11.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 9999.0 0.0 6.0 0.0 52.0 50.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 2.4 4.3 5.7 0.0 53.4 50.4 2.7 4.2 5.5 30 Becej 27400G00 57 43 0 100 4.6 6.7 5.8 0.1 53.6 51.2 5.6 6.6 7.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 56 44 0 100 -0.1 1.7 3.6 -0.1 50.8 49.3 0.6 1.7 3.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 1.2 3.1 3.8 -0.1 50.4 49.4 1.8 3.1 4.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 56 44 0 100 0.4 2.2 2.2 0.0 50.2 49.9 1.4 2.2 3.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 57 43 0 100 2.2 4.5 5.6 -0.1 53.2 49.5 2.8 4.4 5.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 -2.4 0.0 2.8 0.0 51.0 50.2 -0.9 0.0 0.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 2.3 4.6 4.5 0.0 53.6 50.1 3.2 4.5 5.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 2.6 4.2 3.4 0.0 52.2 50.2 2.6 4.1 5.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 57 43 0 100 1.4 3.5 3.6 0.0 51.8 49.6 2.6 3.5 4.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 0.5 2.6 3.3 0.0 51.2 49.6 1.3 2.6 3.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 57 43 0 100 0.4 2.7 2.8 -0.1 52.0 49.0 1.9 2.6 3.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 56 44 0 100 3.6 5.2 4.7 0.1 50.4 51.2 3.8 5.2 5.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 58 42 0 100 1.8 4.7 4.0 -0.1 51.0 49.8 3.4 4.6 5.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 56 44 0 100 2.3 4.2 3.1 -0.1 52.9 49.2 3.0 4.0 4.8 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 2.5 5.1 5.5 0.0 53.9 50.3 2.9 4.6 5.9 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 1.0 2.6 3.0 0.1 52.0 51.2 1.1 2.5 4.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 57 43 0 100 2.1 4.5 5.8 0.1 53.2 51.1 3.3 4.4 5.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 -1.9 -0.4 1.9 0.2 49.9 51.9 -1.2 -0.4 0.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 2.0 4.4 5.4 0.0 54.0 50.7 2.8 4.3 5.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 1.6 4.2 5.6 0.1 53.2 50.8 2.6 4.0 4.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 55 45 0 100 2.3 4.8 5.7 0.1 52.2 51.6 3.1 4.6 5.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 2.2 4.3 4.5 0.1 52.3 51.4 2.5 4.3 4.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 5.3 5.0 4.5 0.0 50.8 50.7 2.0 5.0 5.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 3.7 3.0 3.1 0.1 49.3 51.0 1.9 3.0 4.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 2.1 4.4 5.3 0.0 50.8 50.3 2.8 4.4 5.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 58 42 0 100 0.7 2.8 3.7 -0.1 50.6 49.4 2.0 2.8 3.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 1.2 2.7 2.7 0.1 51.5 51.8 1.2 2.6 3.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 2.2 4.4 5.8 0.0 52.6 50.2 3.6 4.3 5.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------