***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.10.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.10.2013.-27.10.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 57 43 0 100 9999.0 0.0 6.7 -0.9 37.6 41.1 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 3.0 4.7 6.4 -0.8 41.0 42.1 4.0 5.6 7.3 30 Becej 27400G00 58 42 0 100 5.6 5.7 6.4 -0.9 39.3 40.7 5.2 7.2 9.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 0.5 0.8 4.4 -1.0 38.4 39.6 0.5 1.8 3.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 3.1 4.0 4.6 -1.0 38.3 40.2 3.8 4.7 5.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 2.6 3.4 3.1 -0.7 39.7 42.1 3.3 4.2 5.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 3.4 4.4 6.3 -0.8 40.4 42.4 3.8 5.7 7.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 59 41 0 100 -1.5 -1.2 3.6 -0.7 36.4 42.3 -1.3 0.5 1.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 57 43 0 100 3.6 4.7 5.2 -0.9 38.2 41.1 4.3 5.7 8.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 57 43 0 100 3.9 4.3 4.0 -0.8 37.9 41.8 4.0 5.2 7.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 3.8 4.3 4.4 -0.8 39.8 41.1 3.7 5.5 6.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 57 43 0 100 2.4 2.9 4.1 -0.8 37.0 41.3 2.8 4.0 6.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 56 44 0 100 3.8 3.8 3.5 -0.9 37.3 40.4 3.7 5.6 6.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 4.1 4.9 5.1 -0.8 39.6 42.2 4.4 6.0 7.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 3.9 4.1 4.8 -0.9 38.6 40.3 4.0 4.8 6.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 4.3 5.1 3.9 -0.8 39.1 40.7 4.7 6.0 7.4 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 3.8 4.6 6.2 -0.7 42.9 43.2 3.8 5.7 7.5 30 Palic 37000G16 59 41 0 100 2.4 3.6 3.6 -0.8 38.9 42.2 3.3 4.2 5.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 3.6 4.3 6.3 -0.8 41.1 41.7 3.8 5.8 7.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 64 36 0 100 -0.5 0.0 2.6 -0.7 34.8 43.6 -0.2 2.2 3.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 61 39 0 100 3.2 4.2 6.0 -1.0 37.0 40.6 4.0 5.6 6.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 3.1 4.4 6.2 -0.7 43.0 42.9 2.9 5.4 6.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 55 45 0 100 3.5 3.9 6.1 -0.9 41.5 40.9 3.7 5.1 7.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 3.3 4.4 4.9 -0.9 40.4 41.4 3.7 5.0 6.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 56 44 0 100 4.1 4.4 5.2 -1.0 36.5 40.3 4.3 5.6 7.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 58 42 0 100 3.6 4.6 3.9 -0.7 37.1 42.0 4.4 5.2 6.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 3.4 4.6 6.0 -0.9 37.4 41.1 4.0 5.7 8.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 4.5 3.7 4.5 -0.9 39.4 40.2 3.5 4.0 4.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 58 42 0 100 1.4 1.6 3.3 -0.7 39.3 43.3 1.2 2.9 6.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 3.4 4.6 6.5 -0.9 39.6 41.7 3.9 6.1 7.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------