***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.10.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.10.2013.-20.10.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 78 22 0 100 9999.0 0.0 6.4 -2.8 19.0 23.0 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 77 23 0 100 3.4 2.7 6.4 -2.4 19.3 25.9 4.1 6.5 7.5 30 Becej 27400G00 76 24 0 100 6.2 5.5 6.3 -2.5 18.3 24.3 6.8 9.1 9.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 85 15 0 100 1.2 0.3 4.1 -2.9 15.1 19.6 2.2 4.3 5.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 88 12 0 100 2.0 1.5 4.2 -2.9 15.6 20.4 3.4 5.4 7.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 80 20 0 100 1.9 1.5 2.8 -2.7 17.1 21.8 2.6 4.5 5.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 79 21 0 100 3.7 3.4 6.3 -2.5 19.0 25.1 4.0 6.0 7.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 81 19 0 100 -1.7 -2.1 3.3 -2.5 18.6 24.0 -0.8 1.4 2.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 88 12 0 100 3.1 2.6 4.7 -2.9 15.9 20.8 4.9 6.5 8.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 84 16 0 100 3.3 3.2 3.6 -2.8 17.5 22.1 4.7 6.1 7.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 81 19 0 100 2.9 2.4 4.0 -2.7 16.7 22.0 4.2 5.5 7.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 81 19 0 100 1.8 1.3 3.7 -2.6 17.7 22.8 3.3 4.2 5.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 81 19 0 100 2.1 1.5 3.0 -2.9 16.3 21.2 3.0 4.7 6.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 76 24 0 100 4.4 3.9 5.2 -2.2 21.0 27.0 4.4 6.7 8.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 85 15 0 100 3.7 3.2 4.6 -2.8 15.2 18.8 4.6 6.3 7.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 82 18 0 100 3.7 3.0 3.5 -2.9 15.6 20.8 5.3 6.1 7.9 30 Nis 06700G01 72 28 0 100 4.1 3.4 6.2 -2.3 20.8 27.0 4.2 6.2 7.5 30 Palic 37000G16 81 19 0 100 2.7 2.2 3.2 -2.6 20.4 24.2 3.3 5.5 6.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 77 23 0 100 4.0 3.2 6.4 -2.3 19.4 26.4 4.0 6.9 7.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 77 23 0 100 -1.3 -1.0 2.4 -2.2 24.3 27.7 -0.3 1.3 3.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 84 16 0 100 2.8 2.2 5.7 -2.8 15.9 21.6 4.7 5.9 7.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 73 27 0 100 3.2 2.6 6.2 -2.3 19.9 27.1 3.5 5.8 6.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 77 23 0 100 3.7 3.0 6.3 -2.2 19.7 26.8 3.9 6.4 7.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 76 24 0 100 3.2 2.8 4.9 -2.4 20.8 25.4 4.2 5.7 6.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 80 20 0 100 3.7 3.2 4.9 -2.9 17.1 21.4 4.7 6.4 7.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 82 18 0 100 2.7 2.4 3.5 -2.7 18.6 22.9 4.1 5.1 6.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 81 19 0 100 3.3 2.7 5.7 -2.8 18.0 22.2 4.4 6.4 7.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 85 15 0 100 1.7 1.1 4.3 -2.9 14.6 19.1 2.4 4.5 6.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 76 24 0 100 2.2 2.0 3.1 -2.2 22.8 26.9 2.4 5.0 5.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 77 23 0 100 3.5 2.6 6.4 -2.5 19.1 25.0 4.5 7.1 7.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------