***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.10.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.10.2013.-13.10.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 84 16 0 100 9999.0 0.0 7.6 -2.9 11.3 16.1 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 90 10 0 100 6.7 6.0 7.3 -2.9 12.2 15.0 7.6 8.1 9.2 30 Becej 27400G00 78 22 0 100 9.0 8.5 8.1 -2.2 15.5 21.6 10.0 10.5 11.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 94 6 0 100 3.9 2.9 5.6 -2.5 11.1 13.0 5.2 5.8 7.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 88 12 0 100 5.3 4.5 6.1 -2.4 11.6 16.4 6.4 8.1 8.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 91 9 0 100 4.5 4.2 4.6 -2.0 16.1 18.5 5.6 7.5 8.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 97 3 0 100 6.5 6.3 6.8 -3.4 8.4 10.9 7.5 8.3 9.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 65 35 0 100 1.5 2.3 6.1 -0.8 30.3 37.8 2.4 3.0 3.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 81 19 0 100 7.1 5.3 6.5 -2.4 9.3 17.4 7.4 9.1 9.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 71 29 0 100 6.6 6.9 6.1 -1.5 21.4 29.0 7.8 8.1 9.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 85 15 0 100 6.2 5.9 6.1 -2.0 15.9 20.2 6.7 7.7 9.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 74 26 0 100 5.4 5.2 6.1 -1.4 22.7 28.6 5.8 6.8 8.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 85 15 0 100 5.3 4.6 5.1 -2.3 12.9 18.1 5.9 7.9 8.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 73 27 0 100 7.2 7.4 7.4 -1.6 22.4 28.5 8.0 8.6 9.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 98 2 0 100 7.1 6.0 6.1 -3.3 5.1 6.7 7.8 8.8 9.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 88 12 0 100 6.7 5.6 5.4 -2.3 12.5 16.1 7.5 9.0 10.0 30 Nis 06700G01 94 6 0 100 6.9 6.7 6.8 -3.0 12.8 14.0 7.3 8.8 9.5 30 Palic 37000G16 68 32 0 100 5.8 6.2 5.6 -1.3 24.7 32.8 6.5 7.6 8.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 81 19 0 100 6.8 6.4 7.7 -2.5 14.2 18.9 7.6 8.1 9.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 2.4 2.5 4.6 -0.5 38.4 43.4 2.0 3.7 4.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 79 21 0 100 6.0 4.9 7.6 -2.4 12.5 18.8 6.2 8.2 9.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 86 14 0 100 6.0 5.7 7.2 -2.7 12.8 16.2 6.9 7.5 8.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 75 25 0 100 6.5 6.2 8.0 -1.9 17.3 23.8 7.4 8.3 8.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 70 30 0 100 6.3 6.6 7.0 -1.6 21.2 27.8 7.3 7.9 8.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 84 16 0 100 6.6 5.9 7.0 -2.6 12.2 17.7 7.5 8.3 9.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 73 27 0 100 6.3 5.8 5.7 -1.4 21.1 27.8 6.2 8.1 8.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 91 9 0 100 5.6 4.8 6.7 -3.3 7.9 12.8 7.3 8.1 9.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 95 5 0 100 5.0 4.6 5.8 -2.7 8.8 10.6 6.1 7.1 8.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 63 37 0 100 5.6 6.2 5.5 -0.7 34.5 40.3 6.2 6.6 7.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 89 11 0 100 6.9 6.3 7.5 -2.9 12.3 15.1 7.8 8.5 9.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------