***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.10.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.10.2014.-02.11.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 58 42 0 100 18.8 21.4 25.8 57.9 37.5 33.9 15.5 33.0 45.3 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 60 40 0 100 21.2 17.2 27.1 59.6 32.9 32.1 17.2 30.6 43.8 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 21.7 27.2 27.3 59.8 37.4 33.4 25.1 38.0 57.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 56 44 0 100 26.3 26.2 34.8 65.3 37.7 35.0 24.8 36.7 57.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 58 42 0 100 23.4 30.8 33.9 67.6 40.3 35.7 28.5 36.4 43.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 63 37 0 100 19.3 20.7 41.1 72.6 35.9 36.5 19.3 39.9 48.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 57 43 0 100 17.9 20.0 26.8 59.0 34.7 31.9 19.8 27.3 40.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 58 42 0 100 33.6 41.1 39.1 74.2 38.7 37.8 39.6 50.6 76.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 22.1 33.1 33.3 67.4 39.4 36.2 32.2 36.5 42.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 32.5 35.8 37.4 70.5 38.8 36.7 33.3 46.0 50.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 59 41 0 100 21.3 27.1 33.0 70.4 38.1 36.8 25.3 34.5 47.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 62 38 0 100 18.4 28.8 33.9 72.5 36.4 37.3 26.6 37.6 44.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 67 33 0 100 17.4 26.8 36.3 70.7 36.3 35.6 23.8 40.4 47.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 65 35 0 100 30.5 33.0 33.4 59.9 27.1 29.7 43.5 63.1 76.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 63 37 0 100 15.0 12.3 36.9 64.5 35.9 35.3 11.5 28.5 50.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 65 35 0 100 16.9 21.8 33.8 68.5 35.6 35.0 19.8 37.4 44.1 30 Nis 06700G01 62 38 0 100 19.4 17.4 28.1 62.6 34.3 32.9 16.9 29.2 34.1 30 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 32.8 39.2 39.7 67.9 34.7 35.2 37.5 49.8 58.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 61 39 0 100 24.2 19.9 27.2 59.9 32.4 31.9 20.8 41.7 60.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 57 43 0 100 39.0 42.9 52.0 74.9 37.9 36.4 34.4 52.0 62.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 57 43 0 100 22.6 31.6 29.8 64.2 37.6 36.0 26.4 36.7 48.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 72 28 0 100 18.5 21.3 28.1 60.6 30.4 30.7 24.1 34.7 46.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 62 38 0 100 22.9 25.9 28.1 60.1 31.5 31.5 30.7 43.5 59.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 28.2 33.6 34.0 63.3 33.6 33.2 33.3 46.7 56.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 60 40 0 100 19.2 19.8 30.8 60.7 36.6 33.8 18.1 31.2 43.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 64 36 0 100 20.1 34.0 35.8 69.5 38.5 36.1 31.9 37.2 50.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 59 41 0 100 17.4 18.4 28.2 58.1 37.7 33.3 17.4 27.4 47.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 56 44 0 100 19.7 21.7 36.1 66.6 36.6 35.8 17.4 31.8 42.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 56 44 0 100 43.9 47.9 42.6 68.8 35.0 34.8 46.8 63.5 83.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 62 38 0 100 17.5 16.0 26.0 57.3 33.6 31.2 15.7 32.2 46.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------