***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.10.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.10.2014.-02.11.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 34 66 100 10.6 11.5 9.7 107.8 69.5 57.8 0.6 5.3 11.1 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 4.0 7.2 9.5 109.9 66.5 55.5 0.7 2.5 7.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 7.8 9.0 10.3 118.0 68.3 58.4 1.3 5.3 8.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 8.2 10.7 12.0 114.5 69.6 53.8 1.9 6.4 10.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 7.0 12.7 12.5 128.4 71.9 57.4 2.1 4.6 9.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 4.0 3.5 13.4 114.6 63.2 53.5 1.1 2.7 4.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 5.4 6.7 9.3 107.2 68.4 54.7 0.5 3.8 6.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 8.9 10.1 14.0 132.8 71.4 57.4 1.6 6.3 9.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 38 62 100 10.1 11.4 13.0 136.3 73.2 59.9 1.4 5.5 8.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 8.2 11.9 13.9 135.7 71.9 58.7 3.7 6.2 10.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 6.4 9.7 12.2 134.7 74.1 57.5 1.3 5.2 8.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 5.7 9.0 12.1 132.1 71.2 57.2 1.7 3.9 6.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 5.8 9.5 12.7 124.3 68.0 56.0 1.6 4.3 9.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 12.4 16.4 12.6 121.4 68.1 57.4 3.1 9.9 15.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 3.7 4.5 11.4 104.0 63.7 51.6 0.7 2.3 5.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 5.3 8.2 12.0 123.9 70.9 55.5 0.6 3.3 6.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 4.7 8.4 9.2 107.2 65.6 53.6 0.6 2.8 8.6 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 3.1 14.0 14.6 129.9 70.7 58.5 1.9 6.0 10.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 6.3 8.0 9.8 114.0 67.0 56.8 1.2 3.6 7.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 8.0 10.9 18.0 124.1 70.4 56.4 3.1 4.6 7.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 38 62 100 9.2 9.4 11.7 129.0 72.2 59.4 0.9 6.3 9.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 5.3 9.5 9.9 113.9 66.3 55.7 1.8 2.9 9.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 7.3 9.3 10.2 118.0 67.5 57.6 1.9 3.8 8.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 10.3 15.5 12.6 125.1 68.6 58.5 2.2 7.5 15.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 6.5 9.7 11.1 111.1 68.4 56.4 1.6 4.4 9.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 4.1 6.2 12.5 122.6 67.7 56.5 1.1 2.8 4.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 35 65 100 8.4 9.2 10.2 105.0 68.4 56.9 0.8 3.1 8.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 4.8 6.6 12.0 113.5 68.9 53.2 1.0 3.9 6.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 13.1 19.3 15.5 124.9 70.0 57.8 3.5 10.2 18.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 4.8 5.4 9.5 109.2 66.7 56.0 0.6 3.3 5.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------