***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.10.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.10.2014.-26.10.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 2.5 10.5 7.0 77.2 63.3 48.7 2.5 4.9 11.2 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 1.6 9.7 7.9 80.9 63.2 47.9 0.1 3.3 10.5 30 Becej 27400G00 58 42 0 100 2.9 14.2 7.9 89.0 66.5 49.4 2.0 6.4 13.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 10.4 15.4 9.6 95.5 63.4 49.5 2.3 7.2 17.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 11.3 10.3 9.5 107.9 68.4 51.4 2.4 6.8 10.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 2.1 8.7 11.9 114.8 66.9 48.4 0.8 4.3 8.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 1.9 7.8 7.8 77.8 61.7 48.3 0.3 3.9 8.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 12.2 18.8 11.2 123.6 69.9 53.1 4.6 8.3 16.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 3.2 9.2 9.4 110.8 69.9 51.7 3.0 6.0 8.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 12.4 12.1 11.0 120.5 71.6 53.9 3.8 6.3 10.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 7.0 12.5 9.3 119.9 71.0 53.2 2.1 3.7 10.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 7.1 9.9 9.4 120.5 69.2 52.1 1.6 5.7 9.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 7.8 11.5 10.4 113.7 66.7 49.0 2.0 5.2 11.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 5.3 17.7 10.4 97.7 63.7 51.0 4.5 10.4 20.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 5.3 8.7 10.2 90.6 61.7 48.5 1.0 2.5 9.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 6.5 9.8 9.3 110.5 66.1 49.8 1.7 3.8 9.6 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 1.0 8.9 8.0 78.3 61.8 47.4 0.7 2.1 11.7 30 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 3.0 10.5 12.3 114.0 71.0 55.0 3.9 6.2 10.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 2.4 14.8 8.0 85.9 63.7 48.3 1.8 5.4 15.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 4.3 13.4 16.2 116.4 67.4 53.5 4.2 8.6 12.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 11.2 10.8 7.9 95.4 67.9 50.9 2.2 7.6 10.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 7.3 9.4 7.9 78.9 57.3 46.7 0.8 3.9 13.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 57 43 0 100 4.1 16.4 8.4 93.0 64.3 49.1 1.4 9.3 18.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 3.0 17.3 10.3 104.0 68.9 53.3 1.1 6.4 16.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 8.4 6.0 8.5 82.1 61.9 48.2 1.3 4.5 8.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 4.3 11.7 9.6 104.6 62.7 46.8 2.2 8.8 13.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 9.1 8.1 7.9 77.8 62.1 48.4 0.7 3.8 9.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 7.2 8.8 9.9 98.9 63.8 49.1 0.7 5.0 9.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 4.6 20.6 13.5 114.8 69.1 54.8 6.3 8.2 19.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 2.7 11.6 7.7 80.9 62.7 48.2 0.9 5.5 11.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------