***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.10.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.10.2014.-19.10.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 1.4 3.4 5.5 50.4 54.4 42.0 0.1 3.1 6.3 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 5.2 3.7 6.9 63.5 55.6 43.4 0.6 2.9 8.0 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 0.7 2.4 5.7 50.8 52.7 39.8 0.5 1.6 9.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 57 43 0 100 2.3 3.8 6.1 46.2 46.6 36.0 1.4 5.3 7.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 62 38 0 100 1.8 3.6 6.0 45.2 46.3 36.0 0.7 4.6 12.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 8.2 4.7 7.9 54.5 49.1 40.9 0.6 5.0 9.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 4.8 4.7 7.0 64.5 55.5 42.2 0.7 1.8 7.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 58 42 0 100 4.3 8.0 6.8 48.6 43.3 37.4 3.1 10.2 14.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 62 38 0 100 2.3 2.5 5.7 42.5 45.3 34.3 0.5 6.1 9.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 63 37 0 100 3.5 5.4 6.3 44.6 42.3 35.1 2.3 9.3 12.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 60 40 0 100 2.3 5.4 5.6 45.6 47.9 37.5 0.7 5.8 12.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 2.2 1.9 5.7 47.4 45.1 38.4 0.9 4.8 10.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 3.2 6.0 6.4 49.2 48.4 38.5 1.1 7.1 12.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 3.5 3.6 6.9 51.5 45.7 39.4 0.8 7.8 18.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 1.1 2.8 7.2 50.4 52.6 40.4 0.5 2.4 8.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 56 44 0 100 2.3 4.8 6.0 48.1 48.5 38.0 1.4 5.2 11.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 4.7 5.2 8.3 78.4 59.2 44.2 0.2 1.9 8.0 30 Palic 37000G16 61 39 0 100 1.9 3.6 7.1 46.5 41.7 35.0 2.1 4.0 17.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 9.2 8.1 6.6 61.9 55.4 44.2 0.5 7.3 8.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 57 43 0 100 3.6 6.3 10.5 57.8 43.6 36.0 1.3 8.4 14.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 59 41 0 100 1.6 3.5 5.4 45.8 49.3 35.5 0.1 4.0 7.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 4.8 5.3 7.9 74.2 58.1 45.8 0.4 2.7 6.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 1.5 6.6 6.5 60.0 54.8 43.8 0.3 3.2 12.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 57 43 0 100 1.8 2.6 6.5 48.7 45.0 37.3 0.4 4.2 14.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 57 43 0 100 0.9 2.1 6.6 51.8 50.1 39.3 0.5 2.1 6.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 64 36 0 100 2.1 4.6 6.3 49.3 45.1 38.8 1.1 5.8 15.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 2.0 4.5 6.4 53.1 52.3 40.7 0.9 4.3 8.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 1.7 3.8 6.3 47.2 49.3 38.0 1.5 3.9 7.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 62 38 0 100 4.5 6.4 7.8 48.6 42.0 34.0 4.2 10.5 19.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 5.5 5.8 6.1 55.6 54.1 42.0 0.5 3.1 10.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------