***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.10.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.10.2014.-12.10.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 79 21 0 100 0.9 0.1 3.7 23.4 28.4 20.4 0.3 4.5 6.9 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 82 18 0 100 1.4 0.4 2.7 16.8 20.5 17.0 1.5 7.8 15.7 30 Becej 27400G00 81 19 0 100 1.5 0.1 3.5 20.6 23.0 17.2 0.8 8.1 19.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 86 14 0 100 2.2 4.8 7.2 36.7 33.9 22.8 4.4 12.1 18.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 86 14 0 100 0.9 1.4 5.9 32.1 26.6 19.9 2.6 4.8 16.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 69 31 0 100 2.9 4.2 7.9 39.4 36.8 26.2 3.6 7.9 19.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 84 16 0 100 1.6 0.0 2.7 16.9 21.1 17.1 1.2 10.2 17.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 82 18 0 100 4.4 6.6 7.2 37.7 29.0 21.6 9.8 12.5 23.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 84 16 0 100 1.6 1.2 5.2 28.8 23.4 17.5 1.9 7.9 17.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 83 17 0 100 1.8 1.7 6.1 31.7 25.3 19.0 3.0 8.3 17.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 83 17 0 100 0.8 0.8 5.9 33.3 28.1 21.1 2.3 4.6 16.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 79 21 0 100 1.8 1.4 6.8 37.9 30.9 23.3 1.6 8.4 14.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 79 21 0 100 1.7 2.4 6.9 36.0 31.3 23.1 2.8 5.8 18.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 89 11 0 100 1.4 0.5 3.5 16.6 15.5 12.0 2.7 8.7 20.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 81 19 0 100 1.0 1.4 8.2 39.2 40.3 26.8 1.1 5.2 13.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 84 16 0 100 1.0 1.0 6.4 34.4 30.2 21.8 1.2 6.1 13.3 30 Nis 06700G01 82 18 0 100 1.4 0.0 2.6 16.9 22.2 16.9 0.4 7.8 12.4 30 Palic 37000G16 89 11 0 100 1.7 0.7 5.7 26.9 20.4 16.4 4.4 11.5 18.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 84 16 0 100 1.1 0.0 2.7 16.4 18.9 16.4 0.9 6.7 20.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 88 12 0 100 3.2 3.3 7.3 32.0 21.5 17.8 5.6 11.4 19.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 79 21 0 100 1.6 2.2 4.7 27.4 27.1 18.7 4.1 7.4 19.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 87 13 0 100 1.3 0.0 2.3 13.7 14.9 12.6 0.1 10.3 19.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 85 15 0 100 1.1 0.0 3.0 16.4 17.2 16.3 1.6 7.5 13.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 88 12 0 100 0.9 0.8 4.5 22.5 21.7 15.1 3.3 4.3 17.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 81 19 0 100 2.0 0.6 4.6 25.9 28.3 19.4 2.1 10.5 15.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 71 29 0 100 2.0 5.0 7.5 38.4 35.7 24.4 4.7 7.1 12.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 78 22 0 100 1.0 0.2 3.7 22.2 27.1 19.5 0.6 4.6 10.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 85 15 0 100 1.6 1.8 7.8 38.9 38.3 25.1 1.2 9.7 12.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 89 11 0 100 3.5 3.0 5.8 27.0 20.2 15.9 6.3 17.3 25.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 82 18 0 100 1.5 0.0 2.7 16.5 20.6 16.5 0.8 8.4 13.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------