***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.10.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.10.2014.-02.11.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 84 16 100 17.2 17.5 16.5 0.3 58.0 56.9 16.2 16.8 18.2 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 82 18 100 17.6 17.7 16.6 0.6 62.0 60.0 16.6 17.3 18.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 83 17 100 18.0 18.2 16.8 0.6 61.6 59.8 16.9 17.7 18.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 11.3 11.2 14.2 0.2 53.2 53.4 9.2 10.8 12.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 83 17 100 17.9 18.1 15.1 0.5 58.3 57.2 16.7 17.6 18.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 17.3 17.8 13.9 0.4 57.6 55.4 15.8 16.8 18.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 82 18 100 17.3 17.4 16.4 0.4 60.5 58.2 15.9 16.9 17.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 9.4 9.6 14.5 0.7 63.0 60.8 8.1 9.2 9.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 18.1 18.6 15.9 0.6 60.3 59.0 16.7 17.7 19.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 17.7 18.6 15.1 0.7 62.2 60.8 16.4 17.3 18.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 18.1 18.9 15.1 0.5 59.7 58.0 16.5 17.8 19.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 17.7 18.2 14.9 0.5 60.7 57.8 16.2 17.3 18.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 18.5 18.6 14.6 0.3 58.3 55.3 16.9 18.1 19.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 34 66 100 19.2 19.2 16.5 1.2 70.2 66.0 17.2 18.2 19.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 15.6 16.5 14.5 0.1 52.3 51.5 15.9 16.5 17.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 18.9 19.3 14.7 0.4 57.6 55.8 17.4 18.6 19.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 41 59 100 17.5 17.3 16.4 0.7 64.6 61.3 16.1 16.7 17.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 17.1 17.9 15.0 1.0 65.4 63.4 15.8 16.8 17.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 82 18 100 17.6 18.0 16.9 0.7 64.2 61.9 16.6 17.3 18.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 42 58 100 15.3 15.1 13.3 1.0 65.4 64.2 13.2 14.4 15.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 82 18 100 18.0 18.0 16.3 0.5 58.9 58.2 16.6 17.6 18.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 35 65 100 18.4 18.5 16.7 0.9 68.8 64.5 16.6 17.5 17.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 42 58 100 18.5 18.8 17.1 0.9 68.2 64.0 16.8 17.5 18.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 42 58 100 19.1 19.0 16.2 1.0 66.5 63.7 16.7 18.2 18.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 17.0 17.3 15.1 0.3 57.1 56.0 16.1 16.6 17.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 17.8 17.8 14.3 0.2 55.3 53.5 16.7 17.3 18.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 82 18 100 17.4 17.8 15.9 0.4 59.0 57.1 16.5 17.0 18.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 17.4 17.5 14.5 0.2 53.5 52.6 16.2 17.0 17.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 42 58 100 14.2 14.5 14.5 1.1 66.0 64.6 12.2 13.3 14.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 83 17 100 17.4 17.5 16.7 0.5 60.6 58.9 16.1 17.2 17.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------