***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.10.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.10.2014.-02.11.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 15.5 14.0 13.4 -0.6 41.2 44.4 12.8 14.9 16.1 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 15.0 14.5 13.4 -0.6 44.6 44.7 13.3 14.8 15.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 15.6 14.4 13.6 -0.5 42.9 45.3 13.2 15.0 16.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 10.5 9.2 11.6 -0.4 42.1 46.1 6.9 9.9 10.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 15.4 14.3 12.0 -0.5 43.8 45.1 13.6 14.7 17.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 15.7 14.2 11.1 -0.5 40.2 45.2 13.4 15.1 16.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 14.6 13.8 13.2 -0.6 43.7 43.8 13.2 14.2 14.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 8.2 7.7 11.3 -0.5 43.1 44.9 6.9 7.8 8.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 82 18 100 15.4 14.3 12.6 -0.6 43.6 45.0 13.7 14.6 17.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 82 18 100 15.2 13.9 11.8 -0.6 43.6 44.9 13.6 14.4 16.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 15.5 14.5 11.9 -0.5 42.9 44.8 14.0 14.6 17.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 15.7 14.6 11.8 -0.6 41.3 44.1 13.7 14.9 16.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 16.3 14.2 11.5 -0.7 38.1 43.0 14.1 15.6 17.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 16.8 14.8 12.9 -0.5 44.3 45.5 13.1 16.2 17.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 12.7 14.9 11.7 -0.3 44.3 47.5 13.1 15.2 16.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 16.8 15.4 11.7 -0.6 40.6 44.3 15.0 16.1 17.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 14.0 13.5 13.1 -0.5 46.6 44.7 12.6 13.6 14.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 14.3 12.9 11.6 -0.6 42.3 44.8 12.4 13.6 16.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 15.1 14.2 13.6 -0.5 46.3 45.4 12.9 14.6 16.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 13.8 11.3 9.9 -0.6 41.9 45.0 10.4 13.2 14.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 82 18 100 15.2 14.4 13.1 -0.6 42.8 44.9 13.8 14.6 16.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 15.2 14.8 13.4 -0.4 51.3 46.3 13.0 14.8 15.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 81 19 100 15.5 14.8 13.7 -0.4 46.7 45.9 13.1 15.1 16.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 16.3 14.6 12.8 -0.5 43.5 45.2 13.5 15.7 17.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 15.0 13.7 12.1 -0.6 42.5 44.9 12.9 14.6 15.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 16.5 13.7 11.4 -0.8 36.9 42.9 13.4 16.2 16.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 15.5 14.1 12.8 -0.6 41.6 44.4 13.4 14.8 15.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 16.1 14.7 11.8 -0.4 43.3 46.7 13.4 15.4 16.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 12.2 11.2 10.9 -0.6 43.1 44.6 8.9 11.4 13.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 14.8 13.9 13.5 -0.6 43.0 44.6 13.2 14.4 15.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------