***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.10.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.10.2014.-19.10.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 24 76 100 20.1 20.3 18.4 1.5 70.3 66.1 15.8 17.7 20.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 26 74 100 20.1 20.6 18.4 1.6 72.4 67.2 15.9 18.0 19.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 24 76 100 20.2 20.4 18.7 1.8 73.2 68.0 16.3 18.3 19.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 31 69 100 12.7 12.6 16.4 1.5 69.4 64.6 8.8 11.3 12.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 27 73 100 20.5 20.7 17.1 1.8 74.1 67.2 16.3 18.3 19.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 26 74 100 20.0 20.3 16.0 1.8 72.1 67.4 15.5 16.4 18.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 26 74 100 19.8 19.7 18.2 1.4 70.9 66.1 15.5 17.5 18.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 23 77 100 11.1 11.8 16.5 2.1 74.6 70.1 7.1 8.6 10.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 26 74 100 20.5 20.5 17.8 1.9 75.2 68.3 16.4 18.3 20.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 24 76 100 20.0 20.3 17.1 2.1 75.1 69.7 16.0 17.8 19.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 27 73 100 20.1 20.6 17.0 1.9 74.6 68.1 16.3 17.9 20.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 23 77 100 20.0 20.6 17.0 1.9 73.6 68.6 15.9 17.4 19.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 23 77 100 20.6 20.6 16.6 1.7 71.6 67.3 16.8 18.1 20.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 25 75 100 20.6 21.0 18.3 2.4 77.8 71.4 17.2 19.4 20.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 31 69 100 18.4 18.1 16.2 1.3 67.8 62.9 15.8 17.3 18.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 27 73 100 21.2 21.1 16.7 1.7 72.5 67.0 17.3 18.4 20.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 28 72 100 19.4 20.0 18.2 1.6 72.9 67.4 15.6 17.4 19.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 23 77 100 19.4 19.8 17.0 2.3 74.7 71.3 15.5 17.8 19.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 26 74 100 19.8 20.3 18.7 1.8 73.9 68.5 16.0 17.9 19.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 21 79 100 17.2 17.8 15.2 2.3 76.2 71.9 12.8 14.3 16.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 25 75 100 20.3 20.2 18.2 1.8 72.8 67.3 16.2 18.5 19.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 27 73 100 20.3 20.5 18.5 1.9 74.4 69.1 16.2 18.3 19.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 25 75 100 19.7 20.1 18.9 2.1 76.3 70.1 16.1 18.0 19.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 23 77 100 20.3 20.5 18.1 2.3 76.0 70.8 16.5 19.1 20.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 27 73 100 19.4 19.4 17.0 1.5 69.8 65.7 15.8 17.3 19.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 22 78 100 20.2 19.4 16.4 1.5 69.7 67.2 16.4 17.0 19.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 26 74 100 20.2 19.5 17.7 1.5 69.9 66.1 16.0 17.8 19.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 32 68 100 19.1 19.4 16.5 1.5 69.6 64.2 16.0 17.5 18.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 22 78 100 15.9 16.0 16.3 2.4 75.6 71.9 12.2 13.7 15.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 25 75 100 19.8 20.3 18.5 1.6 72.0 67.0 15.8 17.5 19.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------