***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.10.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.10.2014.-12.10.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 21.0 20.8 17.9 -0.1 52.6 49.9 19.7 20.7 21.4 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 21.6 21.4 18.5 0.6 55.0 55.5 18.6 21.2 21.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 21.4 21.3 18.5 0.5 56.4 55.5 19.7 21.1 22.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 14.6 13.1 14.5 -0.9 46.8 42.5 11.2 13.9 15.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 21.4 21.3 16.5 0.0 55.8 52.1 19.5 21.1 22.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 21.1 20.1 14.6 -0.6 47.5 47.1 17.9 20.6 22.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 19.0 21.0 18.3 0.3 53.2 53.6 19.0 20.8 21.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 12.3 12.2 16.0 0.8 60.1 60.1 9.2 11.8 12.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 21.8 21.6 17.8 0.5 56.9 55.8 19.7 21.6 22.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 21.4 21.9 16.9 0.9 60.6 59.9 19.8 21.1 22.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 21.8 21.9 16.6 0.3 56.5 54.3 20.5 21.6 22.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 21.6 21.5 16.2 0.3 56.1 55.8 19.6 21.2 22.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 22.3 22.2 16.3 0.0 52.6 52.5 20.0 21.9 22.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 38 62 100 22.9 23.0 19.1 1.9 69.3 67.9 19.8 21.5 22.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 18.3 19.0 15.5 -1.4 39.2 37.1 18.2 20.1 22.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 22.9 22.8 16.2 -0.1 53.2 51.1 20.4 22.7 23.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 20.9 21.0 18.4 0.8 58.6 57.7 18.6 20.4 21.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 38 62 100 21.1 21.4 17.0 1.5 67.8 65.3 18.8 19.8 21.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 21.4 21.7 18.8 0.9 58.5 58.3 19.0 21.1 21.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 33 67 100 18.6 18.4 15.4 1.6 68.1 66.8 15.0 17.9 18.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 21.6 21.5 18.1 0.3 56.6 54.0 19.6 21.3 21.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 21.7 22.0 18.9 1.3 64.5 62.3 19.0 21.4 22.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 21.6 22.0 19.2 1.2 63.3 62.1 19.5 21.3 22.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 38 62 100 22.5 22.3 18.5 1.5 66.9 64.3 19.9 21.3 22.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 20.6 20.4 16.4 -0.3 53.0 48.0 19.2 20.3 21.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 21.7 21.1 15.3 -0.4 47.6 48.3 19.3 21.2 22.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 21.4 21.1 17.4 0.0 53.6 50.4 19.7 21.1 21.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 21.2 19.6 15.1 -1.1 43.8 40.8 17.5 20.5 22.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 31 69 100 17.7 17.7 16.7 1.8 70.4 68.1 14.7 16.7 17.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 21.4 21.3 18.4 0.4 54.3 53.8 19.0 21.1 21.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------