***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.10.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.10.2014.-02.11.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 6.6 6.8 8.5 0.2 58.4 54.7 5.5 6.4 7.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 6.8 6.7 8.3 0.3 59.3 56.2 5.6 6.5 6.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 8.8 8.8 8.2 0.2 58.3 54.9 7.8 8.6 9.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 3.9 3.2 5.4 -0.3 43.5 46.4 3.0 3.6 4.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 4.7 5.7 5.8 -0.2 50.3 48.9 4.6 5.6 6.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 4.2 4.9 4.3 -0.1 48.6 50.0 4.1 4.9 5.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 6.6 6.7 8.2 0.2 58.6 55.1 5.7 6.4 6.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 1.4 1.4 4.8 0.0 53.5 52.0 0.4 1.2 2.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 6.8 6.8 6.4 -0.1 54.2 50.7 5.7 6.5 7.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 6.4 6.5 5.2 0.0 53.5 51.8 5.3 6.2 6.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 5.0 5.8 5.6 -0.1 50.3 49.8 5.1 5.8 6.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 5.1 4.9 5.3 -0.1 50.6 49.7 4.3 4.9 5.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 57 43 0 100 4.4 5.3 4.8 -0.2 50.0 48.8 4.7 5.3 6.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 6.9 7.0 6.8 0.2 56.6 56.0 6.2 6.7 7.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 6.6 6.1 6.0 -0.4 41.2 44.4 5.3 6.3 7.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 5.8 6.7 5.1 -0.2 47.0 47.6 5.7 6.9 7.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 36 64 100 7.2 6.8 8.2 0.4 61.9 58.3 5.7 6.5 6.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 5.3 5.3 4.7 0.0 54.8 53.0 4.2 5.1 5.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 6.7 6.7 8.3 0.3 59.3 56.9 5.7 6.5 7.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 2.2 2.2 3.7 0.1 56.7 55.4 1.3 2.0 2.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 6.2 6.5 7.5 0.0 56.4 52.5 5.1 6.0 7.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 36 64 100 6.2 6.0 8.3 0.5 63.7 59.0 5.1 5.6 6.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 6.3 6.3 8.1 0.3 58.7 57.1 5.4 6.1 6.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 6.2 6.2 6.5 0.1 56.6 54.1 5.3 6.1 6.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 6.7 6.5 6.7 0.0 54.3 52.4 5.7 6.4 7.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 5.0 6.0 5.1 -0.2 49.3 48.0 5.1 6.0 6.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 6.4 6.5 7.6 0.1 56.3 53.5 5.7 6.0 7.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 5.0 4.3 5.6 -0.4 40.8 44.9 4.0 4.8 5.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 4.7 4.7 4.5 0.1 55.9 54.9 3.3 4.5 5.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 6.9 7.0 8.4 0.2 58.9 55.0 5.8 6.6 7.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------