***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.10.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.10.2014.-02.11.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 5.0 4.5 6.3 -0.1 54.3 49.7 2.8 4.3 6.5 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 4.9 4.7 6.1 0.0 54.0 50.2 2.9 4.4 5.8 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 4.7 6.7 6.0 0.0 50.1 49.8 6.0 6.7 7.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 2.3 1.1 3.6 -0.2 41.9 48.0 0.6 1.7 3.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 3.7 2.8 3.9 -0.1 44.7 49.6 2.1 3.2 4.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 3.1 1.9 2.4 -0.2 42.8 49.4 1.3 2.6 3.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 4.8 4.8 6.1 0.0 54.7 50.1 3.1 4.3 6.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 0.3 -0.3 2.8 -0.2 45.2 49.4 -1.1 -0.2 0.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 4.8 4.2 4.6 0.0 49.3 50.8 3.3 4.3 5.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 4.5 3.8 3.3 -0.1 47.4 50.0 2.9 3.9 5.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 3.9 3.0 3.7 0.0 46.3 50.3 2.2 3.2 5.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 3.2 2.1 3.4 -0.1 46.2 49.5 1.3 2.4 3.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 84 16 100 3.5 2.7 3.0 -0.1 44.8 49.7 1.5 3.1 4.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 57 43 0 100 3.6 5.4 4.7 0.0 51.8 50.7 4.3 5.1 6.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 5.0 3.9 4.0 -0.2 43.9 48.0 3.2 4.5 6.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 4.7 3.7 3.3 -0.1 45.3 49.8 3.1 4.2 5.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 5.1 5.1 6.0 0.1 54.7 51.1 3.7 4.8 5.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 3.2 2.1 2.9 -0.1 45.9 49.3 1.5 2.5 3.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 5.2 4.8 6.1 0.0 53.3 50.5 3.2 4.7 5.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 0.1 -0.8 1.7 -0.3 40.5 48.1 -1.3 -0.5 0.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 4.8 4.2 5.5 0.0 50.4 50.3 3.3 4.2 5.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 4.6 4.2 6.1 0.2 53.3 51.6 2.8 4.1 5.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 2.7 4.7 5.9 0.1 51.8 50.9 2.9 4.5 5.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 2.4 4.0 4.5 0.0 47.6 49.9 3.0 4.0 5.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 5.1 4.6 4.6 -0.1 49.1 49.0 2.9 4.7 5.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 82 18 100 3.9 2.7 3.2 -0.3 40.3 47.4 2.2 3.4 4.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 5.4 5.1 5.5 0.0 52.9 49.7 3.0 4.7 5.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 3.3 2.4 3.8 -0.2 41.8 48.3 1.9 2.9 4.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 1.0 2.2 2.5 -0.1 43.6 49.3 1.4 2.6 3.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 5.2 4.7 6.2 0.0 53.5 49.8 3.5 4.5 6.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------