***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.10.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.10.2014.-26.10.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 6.1 7.1 8.3 0.5 58.1 57.3 4.2 5.4 7.6 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 6.2 6.7 8.1 0.6 58.0 58.3 4.3 5.4 7.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 8.0 8.8 7.9 0.5 59.1 57.7 6.1 7.2 9.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 1.0 3.0 5.5 0.5 59.9 56.7 0.7 2.2 3.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 33 67 100 6.4 5.8 5.7 0.5 60.9 57.8 4.2 5.3 6.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 31 69 100 5.9 5.5 4.5 0.7 63.5 58.0 3.6 4.7 5.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 6.4 6.4 8.1 0.6 57.2 57.7 4.4 5.7 7.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 1.6 1.3 4.5 0.3 53.1 54.6 -1.0 1.0 2.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 31 69 100 7.8 7.8 6.3 0.5 62.2 58.2 4.2 6.1 8.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 4.7 6.3 5.0 0.4 57.7 56.6 4.6 6.0 6.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 35 65 100 6.5 6.2 5.5 0.5 59.1 57.5 4.4 5.8 6.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 5.4 5.4 5.1 0.3 54.1 54.5 3.5 5.0 6.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 4.1 6.3 4.8 0.5 61.0 56.6 4.4 5.8 6.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 6.7 6.9 6.5 0.5 57.3 57.8 4.9 6.3 7.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 54 46 0 100 4.2 5.9 5.9 0.4 60.2 55.6 4.5 5.2 6.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 34 66 100 7.3 7.1 5.1 0.5 60.0 57.0 5.5 6.7 7.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 37 63 100 7.2 6.8 8.1 0.8 60.2 59.5 4.3 5.7 7.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 5.4 5.3 4.5 0.3 54.2 55.3 3.4 5.0 5.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 6.3 7.0 8.1 0.6 59.0 58.7 3.9 5.6 7.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 3.2 3.0 3.5 0.4 52.7 55.0 0.6 3.0 3.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 31 69 100 7.1 7.2 7.3 0.5 63.0 57.9 4.7 5.7 7.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 31 69 100 6.5 6.1 8.1 0.9 61.5 60.7 3.8 5.1 6.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 6.1 6.6 7.7 0.6 60.5 59.0 4.2 5.6 7.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 5.8 5.8 6.2 0.4 57.7 56.9 4.0 5.5 6.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 32 68 100 7.4 7.1 6.5 0.6 62.1 58.1 4.8 5.7 7.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 4.3 5.7 5.1 0.3 52.9 54.4 4.4 5.7 6.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 4.5 7.9 7.5 0.6 61.1 58.2 4.1 6.2 8.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 54 46 0 100 3.0 4.9 5.7 0.5 60.4 56.1 3.4 4.3 5.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 4.0 3.6 4.3 0.4 51.9 55.4 2.0 3.4 5.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 6.7 7.2 8.2 0.6 57.9 57.8 3.9 6.0 7.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------