***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.10.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.10.2014.-19.10.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 31 69 100 8.2 7.2 9.7 0.9 62.2 61.6 4.6 6.4 7.6 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 32 68 100 7.9 7.9 9.7 1.1 71.1 64.6 4.0 6.7 7.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 30 70 100 10.0 9.8 9.5 0.9 65.0 62.9 6.5 8.7 9.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 4.4 4.9 6.8 0.5 59.0 57.8 2.1 4.0 5.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 6.1 6.7 7.1 0.7 61.2 60.3 3.4 5.5 6.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 5.0 5.5 5.7 0.7 62.6 60.0 2.6 4.5 6.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 32 68 100 7.7 8.0 9.6 1.1 71.2 64.5 4.2 6.5 7.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 33 67 100 3.0 2.7 6.1 0.7 62.3 61.0 -1.0 1.1 3.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 7.0 8.1 7.7 0.8 63.7 61.8 5.0 6.4 8.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 34 66 100 7.6 7.5 6.5 0.8 63.9 62.0 4.8 6.1 7.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 39 61 100 7.3 6.5 6.8 0.7 60.4 60.3 3.8 5.9 7.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 36 64 100 6.2 5.4 6.5 0.6 58.3 59.1 3.3 4.3 6.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 35 65 100 7.0 6.3 6.1 0.7 62.0 60.1 2.9 5.3 7.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 25 75 100 8.5 8.8 8.3 1.3 72.8 67.5 4.8 6.7 7.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 7.2 6.9 7.0 0.3 54.7 55.5 5.1 6.8 7.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 7.1 7.2 6.4 0.6 58.1 59.1 5.0 6.5 8.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 28 72 100 7.7 8.1 9.6 1.4 74.9 66.9 4.6 6.2 7.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 31 69 100 6.8 6.6 6.2 1.0 65.9 63.5 3.6 5.4 6.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 30 70 100 8.2 7.8 9.7 1.2 70.4 65.2 4.1 6.9 7.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 34 66 100 3.2 3.3 5.2 1.0 67.1 64.8 0.0 1.4 2.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 32 68 100 7.9 7.6 8.7 0.8 64.2 61.6 4.5 5.6 7.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 23 77 100 7.3 7.5 9.7 1.5 77.5 68.9 3.8 5.9 6.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 27 73 100 8.2 7.3 9.4 1.2 68.5 66.3 4.3 6.1 7.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 27 73 100 7.2 6.7 7.8 1.0 67.7 64.7 4.7 6.3 6.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 31 69 100 8.7 7.1 7.8 0.7 62.1 59.7 4.4 6.6 7.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 5.9 5.9 6.5 0.7 61.1 59.7 4.1 5.4 7.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 31 69 100 8.2 8.0 8.8 0.8 63.8 61.5 4.1 6.7 8.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 5.1 5.1 6.9 0.4 56.6 56.9 2.7 4.5 6.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 31 69 100 6.0 5.8 5.9 1.1 68.0 65.0 2.7 5.2 5.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 33 67 100 8.3 8.2 9.7 1.0 66.8 63.5 4.5 7.1 8.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------