***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.10.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.10.2014.-12.10.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 59 41 0 100 7.5 7.5 9.7 -0.6 39.1 43.6 7.2 8.4 10.2 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 60 40 0 100 7.5 7.8 9.4 -0.6 38.2 42.5 7.5 8.9 10.0 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 9.8 10.4 9.5 -0.6 39.1 42.6 10.1 11.2 11.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 78 22 0 100 4.7 4.8 5.7 -2.0 18.9 23.6 5.4 6.5 7.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 67 33 0 100 6.1 5.3 6.3 -1.8 18.8 24.9 6.6 8.2 9.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 75 25 0 100 5.2 4.8 4.8 -1.6 20.5 24.6 5.7 7.1 8.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 63 37 0 100 7.6 7.4 9.1 -0.8 34.8 40.1 7.4 9.2 10.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 3.8 2.7 5.7 -0.9 34.3 38.2 2.7 3.4 4.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 61 39 0 100 7.6 7.3 7.0 -1.6 20.7 26.0 8.1 8.8 10.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 7.2 6.9 6.0 -1.2 28.8 32.8 7.5 8.4 9.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 61 39 0 100 6.3 6.2 6.2 -1.6 21.2 26.3 6.8 7.5 9.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 5.6 5.5 6.1 -1.2 28.9 32.7 5.5 6.4 8.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 68 32 0 100 5.7 5.2 5.4 -1.7 18.2 23.2 5.8 7.2 8.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 7.8 8.3 7.7 -0.9 34.4 37.3 8.3 9.3 9.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 80 20 0 100 7.4 7.1 6.9 -2.2 16.1 20.9 7.8 8.8 9.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 69 31 0 100 7.3 6.8 5.6 -1.9 17.1 21.9 7.5 9.3 9.8 30 Nis 06700G01 60 40 0 100 7.8 8.2 9.1 -0.6 37.0 42.9 8.0 9.3 10.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 8.0 6.5 5.4 -1.0 32.0 34.5 6.5 7.6 8.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 56 44 0 100 7.7 8.2 9.5 -0.5 38.4 43.0 7.9 9.0 10.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 3.9 2.7 4.3 -0.6 38.6 40.9 2.1 3.3 4.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 59 41 0 100 6.7 6.9 8.5 -1.1 30.3 34.4 6.9 8.3 9.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 61 39 0 100 7.1 7.0 9.2 -0.7 34.0 41.0 6.9 8.4 9.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 7.5 8.0 9.3 -0.5 36.6 42.0 7.4 9.1 9.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 8.5 7.3 7.4 -0.9 33.5 36.5 7.3 8.1 8.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 63 37 0 100 7.2 7.4 8.1 -1.0 30.5 37.3 7.4 8.8 10.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 64 36 0 100 6.3 5.9 5.6 -1.4 24.8 30.3 6.3 7.6 9.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 62 38 0 100 7.2 7.3 8.5 -1.0 31.4 38.4 7.4 9.3 10.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 79 21 0 100 5.4 4.9 6.0 -2.2 16.4 20.9 6.1 7.4 7.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 7.2 6.3 5.1 -0.7 32.9 37.5 6.3 6.9 7.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 57 43 0 100 8.0 8.0 9.5 -0.6 36.8 42.0 7.8 9.3 10.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------