***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.10.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.10.2020.-01.11.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 86 14 100 37.5 43.4 55.9 118.0 65.0 59.3 17.4 33.0 46.8 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 36.8 48.3 52.8 118.1 67.1 60.1 17.5 31.4 48.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 43.7 49.7 50.5 107.0 59.6 53.7 21.3 37.2 57.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 47.8 40.3 54.0 96.3 52.4 50.3 23.8 38.0 58.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 56 44 0 100 21.5 37.2 49.5 96.9 53.7 48.2 27.0 36.3 43.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 44.2 40.7 50.0 92.9 50.9 49.0 19.3 39.9 47.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 82 18 100 32.7 45.9 56.0 125.5 70.2 62.6 19.2 29.1 42.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 32.7 42.8 51.7 90.2 47.8 45.0 39.5 46.5 77.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 23.8 36.6 50.2 97.6 53.2 48.9 28.8 35.8 42.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 33.0 45.2 51.6 91.0 48.6 45.3 34.8 45.3 49.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 23.6 39.5 48.0 94.9 53.3 47.5 25.2 35.9 47.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 41.5 38.9 48.8 96.4 53.6 48.8 27.3 38.5 43.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 44.9 42.1 52.1 99.7 56.7 52.1 22.8 39.0 47.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 34.5 64.5 54.6 93.2 53.0 47.1 43.5 62.8 76.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 34.5 40.0 52.2 92.8 56.8 49.9 11.2 28.5 50.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 40.1 39.2 49.8 98.2 55.6 50.8 19.8 35.0 42.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 34.7 36.9 53.6 118.5 67.6 60.6 15.7 30.5 34.7 30 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 33.8 48.5 54.1 90.4 48.7 44.7 33.8 48.7 61.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 50.7 59.6 50.8 112.6 63.6 57.7 19.9 44.2 62.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 57 43 0 100 39.1 52.1 63.4 90.0 48.1 45.1 39.0 52.6 61.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 43.3 40.1 49.8 101.5 57.0 50.6 25.4 36.4 48.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 41.3 46.1 53.4 112.8 64.4 57.7 24.1 36.6 46.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 50.2 56.9 49.1 105.5 60.4 54.0 26.1 44.2 63.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 58.5 47.9 51.7 94.7 52.0 47.3 33.5 46.7 56.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 82 18 100 38.0 41.1 57.8 108.9 61.6 55.1 19.3 31.2 46.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 41.8 48.5 57.5 108.5 62.1 56.5 32.3 37.1 49.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 86 14 100 31.9 51.8 59.5 119.7 66.6 60.1 18.1 26.9 51.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 36.3 35.5 48.8 91.1 53.2 48.7 14.6 31.8 41.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 59 41 0 100 47.0 61.0 55.9 88.5 46.8 43.8 48.8 63.5 78.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 38.2 48.0 53.8 118.9 67.2 60.0 15.8 32.8 47.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------