***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.10.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.10.2020.-01.11.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 56 44 0 100 1.5 9.3 11.3 96.3 64.0 51.2 1.2 3.4 10.3 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 4.3 6.8 10.8 99.3 62.2 52.0 0.7 2.3 7.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 7.0 7.8 11.7 99.3 63.1 52.1 1.4 5.4 8.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 8.3 10.4 11.8 88.7 61.5 47.7 1.0 6.5 12.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 6.9 8.5 11.8 91.2 62.3 49.0 1.5 4.8 9.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 1.3 3.9 11.5 89.0 62.9 49.3 1.1 2.8 5.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 5.3 6.5 10.7 98.7 63.3 51.1 1.3 3.6 6.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 8.6 9.8 12.8 92.0 58.6 48.8 1.0 6.3 11.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 6.9 7.7 13.0 96.8 62.9 50.1 1.6 5.2 8.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 9.6 10.5 13.7 95.6 61.2 49.8 3.3 8.1 11.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 7.6 8.6 11.5 91.9 59.8 49.0 0.8 6.4 9.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 5.7 6.3 11.2 91.9 60.1 49.4 0.8 3.7 7.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 1.8 5.1 11.7 93.0 62.3 50.6 0.9 3.8 8.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 10.4 9.7 15.0 100.2 62.8 51.8 2.2 7.6 12.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 3.6 2.8 11.1 83.2 60.1 46.9 1.0 2.0 4.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 4.5 6.5 11.0 90.1 62.1 49.8 0.5 2.3 7.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 5.2 7.4 11.0 98.0 61.8 51.5 1.5 3.8 8.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 8.6 10.4 14.7 97.9 63.2 51.5 1.5 5.9 10.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 5.7 6.1 11.0 99.3 62.2 52.3 1.5 3.8 7.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 7.8 7.8 16.0 89.7 57.2 48.4 1.0 4.7 13.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 7.0 8.1 11.9 96.5 63.5 50.8 1.0 6.2 8.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 6.2 6.2 12.2 100.1 61.3 52.6 1.6 4.0 6.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 6.2 8.0 11.6 99.5 63.1 52.2 1.3 3.4 8.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 9.3 10.9 14.1 102.7 64.7 52.7 2.4 6.8 11.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 4.8 6.1 12.0 92.7 62.8 49.6 1.4 2.8 6.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 57 43 0 100 0.9 4.4 12.2 97.4 60.5 49.3 0.7 2.1 7.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 1.1 5.3 11.6 95.3 63.7 50.4 0.7 2.3 5.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 5.7 6.0 11.2 86.4 60.6 47.6 1.3 5.0 6.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 13.4 16.3 15.0 94.9 61.4 51.1 5.3 10.6 17.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 4.9 5.2 11.1 99.1 63.6 51.9 1.1 3.3 5.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------