***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.10.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.10.2020.-25.10.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 11.5 18.2 13.1 119.4 68.6 54.7 2.6 6.7 16.2 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 57 43 0 100 1.7 13.2 12.9 127.5 69.1 55.1 0.1 3.8 11.2 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 3.8 16.1 12.0 111.3 65.6 52.3 2.0 7.3 16.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 57 43 0 100 3.9 16.7 12.5 96.9 61.9 49.7 2.7 8.1 18.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 57 43 0 100 3.4 10.7 11.1 91.8 61.3 47.8 3.2 7.6 12.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 2.8 9.3 13.0 103.1 67.0 51.8 2.5 5.6 9.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 56 44 0 100 1.8 8.7 12.3 120.2 68.2 54.3 1.6 4.1 7.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 5.3 16.1 12.6 99.7 60.8 51.3 5.1 10.6 17.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 57 43 0 100 3.7 10.3 11.5 94.8 63.5 48.5 4.1 7.8 11.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 3.9 10.5 12.6 97.5 61.7 50.2 4.6 7.6 13.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 3.4 8.9 10.9 96.3 63.0 49.9 2.5 6.9 10.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 3.1 7.9 11.3 101.4 62.5 51.2 2.6 6.5 9.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 3.7 12.3 12.6 104.4 65.4 51.8 2.9 7.6 12.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 14.7 18.8 14.0 103.2 61.5 50.1 5.6 10.3 23.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 54 46 0 100 2.5 10.1 13.9 106.3 68.6 51.4 1.1 5.3 9.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 2.7 8.5 11.4 98.6 63.8 50.6 3.2 5.4 9.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 5.0 8.1 11.9 116.0 67.1 54.8 1.1 2.1 7.0 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 3.5 10.7 13.4 98.1 61.0 49.8 5.0 6.8 10.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 57 43 0 100 2.0 17.7 13.0 127.8 69.8 54.9 2.7 4.8 16.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 4.1 10.9 14.9 93.3 58.8 49.0 4.3 8.0 12.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 4.1 14.2 11.5 99.3 63.1 50.4 2.2 8.5 15.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 2.9 14.9 13.0 120.3 68.0 54.7 0.8 5.8 13.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 4.8 22.4 12.8 122.4 69.0 53.6 2.9 9.8 19.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 12.9 14.0 13.0 102.5 61.5 50.1 3.4 9.7 16.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 9.6 12.6 13.0 103.0 63.0 51.1 1.4 5.0 17.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 55 45 0 100 4.4 14.0 13.1 104.2 64.4 50.8 2.9 9.6 15.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 9.3 15.3 13.4 115.8 67.5 54.3 2.3 4.3 15.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 57 43 0 100 3.0 9.9 12.3 100.4 65.1 50.5 1.1 7.0 10.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 4.9 13.0 13.3 93.7 59.4 48.5 5.8 9.3 15.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 2.6 15.4 13.3 128.9 70.2 54.9 0.9 5.8 13.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------